COP31 Opens Monday in Antalya: Two Presidencies, One Agenda

COP31 Opens Monday in Antalya: Two Presidencies, One Agenda

The UN climate conference COP31 opens on Monday, 9 November, in Antalya, Türkiye, and runs until 20 November. The summit has an unusual structure that matters for how decisions get made. For the first time, two countries will jointly preside over a UN climate conference, a compromise reached because neither Türkiye nor Australia wanted to back down from hosting.

Who does what

Türkiye holds the COP31 Presidency. Australia’s Chris Bowen leads the negotiations as President of Negotiations, responsible for running them and preparing draft texts. Türkiye handles hosting, the Leaders’ Summit on 11–12 November, communications, and the Action Agenda, which covers the conference’s agenda outside the negotiations. Decisions in the formal negotiations require consensus among all parties, while the Action Agenda is voluntary.

COP31 President Murat Kurum has framed the summit as an implementation COP. His goal is to move beyond climate pledges to the concrete implementation of existing commitments.

The formal negotiating agenda

Analysts at the Council on Foreign Relations expect familiar issues in Antalya: climate finance, deeper emissions cuts and funding for loss and damage. They say finance will likely be the most contentious item.

• Emissions: The agenda includes the Mitigation Work Programme, meant to speed up cuts. In a June lead-up meeting, countries could not agree on its terms, including whether it should drive cuts or remain a space for dialogue.
• Just transition: Two decisions are expected on this item, and Kurum and Bowen have kept a just transition mechanism on the agenda since their first joint letter. They aim for agreement on both its functions and its governance.
• Agenda fights: The African Group has asked the UN to open space for agenda items on tripling adaptation finance, trade and climate change, and Green Climate Fund financing arrangements, according to Climate Home News, setting up a possible agenda dispute on opening day. That report reached me through a secondary summary, so check the original.
• Fossil fuels: A fossil fuel phase-out is not a formal agenda item. One summary says there is hope for a global roadmap, but that is a hope, not a scheduled outcome.

Background: the road to Antalya

The presidencies have sent several letters to parties. In the fourth letter, signed by Kurum and Bowen ahead of the Pacific Pre-COP, they urged parties to arrive in Fiji ready to identify progress and encouraged those with outstanding national climate plans to submit them before COP31. The Pre-COP in October produced a proposal for a presidency-led decision on 1.5°C.

What experts expect

Expectations are modest. One preview notes that the formal negotiations will focus mainly on technical details, and that no major new pledges are expected. CFR analysts say major concrete outcomes are not expected, though they hope parties can advance on methane, adaptation and finance, and on implementing existing agreements.

That does not mean the summit is unimportant. Technical decisions on finance, adaptation and just transition shape what governments do for years. The split presidency also means two different measures of success: whether negotiators reach consensus texts, and whether the voluntary Action Agenda delivers real-world commitments.

What to watch in week one

On the first day, watch for any fight over the agenda, since a dispute can eat negotiating time. On 11 and 12 November, the leaders’ summit should show how many heads of state turn up and what they commit to. Türkiye has said 91 leaders are confirmed, a host-government figure that may change. In the background, the negotiators’ pace on finance and just transition will indicate whether the final week ends in agreement or deadlock.

Conclusion

COP31 begins with a clear division of labour but a crowded and contentious agenda. Türkiye is selling an implementation summit, and Australia must steer a consensus process on finance, mitigation and just transition. Expect incremental, technical outcomes unless leaders surprise, and watch the first 48 hours for early signals on whether parties arrive ready to compromise.