The Last Drop of Coffee? Climate Change Threatens Vietnam’s Robusta Supply — But Farmers Are Fighting Back

As global coffee prices surge and drought grips one of the world’s most important growing regions, a nature-based groundwater solution is helping smallholder farmers in Vietnam’s Central Highlands build climate resilience.

Your morning coffee ritual may soon come with a much steeper price tag — or, in a worst-case scenario, an empty cup. Coffee prices have been climbing steadily, driven by mounting concerns over global supply disruptions. Behind the headlines of rising costs lie poor harvests, crop failures, and the accelerating impact of climate change on the world’s coffee-growing regions. Last year alone, international coffee prices hit record highs as stockpiles dwindled, sounding alarm bells across the global supply chain.

At the center of this unfolding crisis is Vietnam’s Central Highlands — the backbone of the world’s robusta coffee supply and a region now facing an uncertain future.

Why Vietnam’s Central Highlands Matters

The Central Highlands is an agricultural powerhouse. Home to roughly six million people spread across five provinces, the region produces 90% of Vietnam’s coffee output, accounting for approximately 20% of the entire global coffee market. That translates into an estimated $3 billion in annual export earnings — a critical economic engine not just for Vietnam, but for the global coffee trade as a whole.

Vietnam is the world’s second-largest coffee producer and the top exporter of robusta beans, which are widely used in instant coffee, espresso blends, and everyday retail brands. Any disruption to this region sends shockwaves through international markets, affecting prices consumers pay from Seattle to Seoul.

But this global supply chain is now under serious strain. In early 2024, Vietnam experienced its worst drought in decades, with rainfall plummeting by 30%. Then, in 2025, a typhoon struck during the critical harvest period, compounding the damage. The result: robusta bean prices spiked to as high as $2.59 per pound before settling around $1.56 — still significantly higher than pre-2020 levels.

Climate Extremes Meet Fragile Livelihoods

Beyond its role as a coffee hub, the Central Highlands is home to a diverse mix of marginalized ethnic groups, smallholder farmers, and fragile ecosystems. Most farmers here cultivate less than 1.5 hectares of land and depend heavily on perennial crops such as coffee, pepper, tea, and fruit — all of which require irrigation for at least part of the year.

As temperatures rise and droughts stretch longer, coffee plantations are drying out and robusta yields are falling. The consequences ripple far beyond your coffee cup: millions of farmers, many with limited resources to adapt, face growing threats to their livelihoods.

Coffee Needs Water — A Lot of It

Every coffee bean represents a thirsty crop. Yet rainfall in the Central Highlands covers only about 25% of what coffee plants need during the crucial dry season. While the region has a relatively dense network of rivers and streams, its steep terrain limits water storage capacity. During dry months, stream flows can drop by 20% to 90%, making surface water an unreliable irrigation source.

Faced with this shortage, many farmers turn to groundwater — a solution with serious long-term risks. Wealthier farmers are drilling ever deeper into basalt aquifers, further depleting underground reserves and degrading soil quality. As climate change extends the length of dry seasons, pressure on these groundwater resources is expected to intensify significantly.

Recharging What Lies Below

To address this escalating water crisis, the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) is leading the project “Nature-based Solutions for Climate Risks in Vietnam’s Central Highlands.” The initiative is supported by the Global Ecosystems-based Adaptation (EbA) Fund, financed through the International Climate Initiative (IKI) of Germany’s Federal Ministry for the Environment, Climate Action, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMUKN).

The project builds on an earlier success: a pioneering nature-based approach called Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR), piloted by IWMI with backing from Nestlé, the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC), and CGIAR. MAR is a cost-effective, community-friendly system that captures monsoon runoff from farmland, rooftops, and paved surfaces, storing it in shallow aquifers through existing wells that typically sit unused during the rainy season.

During a trial conducted from May 2017 to December 2019 — spanning three consecutive monsoon seasons — MAR systems successfully recharged up to 500 cubic meters of water annually, enough to irrigate 1.1 hectares of coffee plantation for one full round. While coffee cultivation typically requires three irrigation rounds during the dry season, this recharge system provided a critical buffer of water during the driest, most vulnerable periods, strengthening both water security and climate resilience for participating farmers.

Scaling Up for the Future

Building on these results, IWMI researchers are now working to scale the MAR model in 2026, with support from both the Vietnamese government and the Global EbA Fund. New interventions will be co-designed and field-tested directly with local communities, with the goal of refining the approach, building farmer capacity, and demonstrating its viability as a broader climate solution across the Central Highlands.

IWMI’s work extends well beyond technical implementation. The initiative emphasizes inclusive, community-driven collaboration, with scientists working alongside smallholder farmers — including women and ethnic minority groups — as well as local authorities, researchers, and private-sector partners. The long-term goals include strengthening sustainable water management practices, shaping national policy to integrate MAR approaches, and building a stronger case for public and private investment in nature-based climate solutions.

Why This Matters for Coffee Drinkers Everywhere

Ultimately, IWMI aims to deliver landscape-scale benefits that improve agricultural productivity, restore ecosystem health, and support community well-being throughout Vietnam’s Central Highlands. For the millions of coffee drinkers around the world, that means one thing: a more secure, sustainable future for the beans behind your daily cup.

As climate change continues to reshape agriculture worldwide, solutions like Managed Aquifer Recharge offer a rare bright spot — proof that resilience can be built from the ground up, literally, one recharged aquifer at a time.

Sources: International Water Management Institute (IWMI); Global Ecosystems-based Adaptation (EbA) Fund; International Climate Initiative (IKI).