Serious Tarbela Delays Trigger Sindh Kharif Water Crisis Fears

Sindh Tarbela Delays Kharif Water Crisis concerns are intensifying as the Sindh government warns that ongoing delays in Tarbela Dam infrastructure projects could severely affect irrigation supplies during the 2026 kharif season.

Sindh Irrigation Minister Jam Khan Shoro has expressed serious concern over Wapda’s failure to complete work on Tarbela Dam projects within the 33-month timeline approved by the Indus River System Authority in 2022.

According to the minister, the deadline expired in June 2025, but the projects remain unfinished. The delays are already affecting water releases from Tarbela and could lead to severe shortages for Sindh during a crucial farming period.

The issue is expected to dominate discussions at the Irsa advisory committee meeting on April 7, where water availability and shortages for the kharif season will be reviewed under the Water Apportionment Accord of 1991.

Why Tarbela Outflows Matter for Sindh

Sindh depends heavily on water releases from Tarbela Dam for irrigation during the kharif season.

The kharif season is especially important because it includes the cultivation of rice, cotton, sugarcane, vegetables, and other crops that require large amounts of water.

Officials say Tarbela’s outflows have already been reduced to 150,000 cusecs due to operational issues in Tunnel-4 and Tunnel-5.

This reduction is creating difficulties for Sindh even though reservoir water levels remain adequate.

The province argues that water shortages are not being caused by a lack of water in the dam, but rather by delays in completing tunnel works and operational systems.

Sindh fears that these constraints could become even more serious if repair work and tunnel testing continue through the main sowing period.

Delayed Tunnel Works Threaten Irrigation Supplies

One of the biggest issues highlighted by Sindh is the delayed testing of the low-level outlet at Tunnel-4.

Originally, the low-level outlet was expected to be tested in February 2026. However, Irsa informed stakeholders that the testing has now been delayed until May 2026.

This delay is raising fears because Tunnel-4 and Tunnel-5 are both critical for maintaining water releases during the kharif season.

Officials say the shutdown of one unit of the Tunnel-4 hydropower project for repair work could reduce Tarbela’s outflow capacity to around 45,000 cusecs.

If the low-level outlet at Tunnel-4 becomes operational, it could provide about 30,000 cusecs of irrigation water.

However, experts fear that this water may not be available because the powerhouse may need to be shut down for the outlet to operate.

As a result, a total of around 75,000 cusecs of water flow could remain unavailable during the 2026 kharif season.

This could create serious problems not only for Sindh but also for agriculture in other provinces.

Kharif Crops Face Major Water Shortages

The Sindh Tarbela Delays Kharif Water Crisis is particularly dangerous because the province has already entered the early stages of the kharif season.

Following the wheat harvest, farmers across Sindh begin preparing land for rice, cotton, sugarcane, and vegetable cultivation.

These crops require regular irrigation, especially during sowing and early growth stages.

A reduction in water supply during this period can reduce crop yields, increase farming costs, and damage agricultural productivity.

Rice cultivation is especially vulnerable because it depends heavily on continuous water supply through canals.

Farmers fear that if Tarbela releases remain restricted, they may not receive enough water for non-perennial canals, which are essential for rice-growing regions.

This could lead to reduced rice acreage, lower cotton production, and higher food prices across Pakistan.

Irsa and Federal Authorities Under Pressure

The Sindh government is demanding urgent intervention from the federal government and Wapda.

Jam Khan Shoro has complained that Wapda has not provided any firm timeline or revised completion plan for the delayed projects.

He warned that Sindh cannot afford another year of water shortages similar to those experienced during previous seasons.

The federal Ministry of Water Resources has called a meeting on April 6 to discuss the issue.

Meanwhile, the Irsa advisory committee is set to meet on April 7 to review the country’s water availability and possible shortages for the coming months.

Officials believe these meetings will be important in determining whether emergency measures can be taken to protect irrigation supplies.

Experts also say that better coordination between Wapda, Irsa, and provincial governments is urgently needed to avoid further damage to Pakistan’s agriculture sector.

Farmers Fear Repeat of Last Year’s Crisis

Farmers in Sindh are deeply worried that the province could face a repeat of last year’s water shortages.

Many growers say they are already struggling with high input costs, expensive diesel, fertilizer prices, and climate-related challenges.

A further reduction in irrigation water would place even more pressure on farmers and increase the risk of crop failures.

Agricultural experts warn that water shortages during the kharif season could also affect employment in rural areas because many workers depend on seasonal farming activities.

Reduced crop production could weaken local economies and increase financial stress for farming communities.

The crisis could become particularly severe in lower Sindh, where tail-end farmers often receive less water than upstream areas.

Without fair and timely distribution, many farmers may not be able to cultivate their land properly.

Water Storage Dispute Adds to Concerns

Another major issue is the dispute over Tarbela’s storage levels.

There are concerns that Wapda may ask Irsa not to raise Tarbela’s storage beyond 1,480 feet, while Irsa wants to increase it to 1,520 feet by June.

This debate is important because river flows generally decline during the summer months, while water demand rises sharply due to the cultivation of water-intensive crops.

If Tarbela storage remains lower than expected, provinces may face additional shortages later in the season.

Sindh fears that lower storage levels, combined with tunnel-related delays, could create a dangerous situation for farmers.

Experts say that careful management of Tarbela’s storage and outflows will be essential to prevent a nationwide water crisis.

Conclusion

Sindh Tarbela Delays Kharif Water Crisis fears highlight the growing pressure on Pakistan’s irrigation and water management system.

Delays in Tunnel-4 and Tunnel-5 projects, reduced outflows, and uncertainty over storage levels are creating serious risks for Sindh’s agriculture sector.

If urgent action is not taken, farmers may face major water shortages during the 2026 kharif season, leading to lower crop production, financial losses, and wider food security concerns.

The coming meetings between Wapda, Irsa, and the federal government will be critical in deciding whether the country can avoid another damaging irrigation crisis.

Internal Link Suggestion: Read more about Pakistan’s irrigation crisis, Indus water disputes, and kharif crop challenges.