Pakistan Wins Water Arbitration Against India – Historic PCA Ruling Secures River Rights

Pakistan wins water arbitration against India in a landmark decision by the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA), issued on August 8, 2025, and published on the PCA’s official website on Monday.

The ruling affirms Pakistan’s unrestricted right to use waters from the Western rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab — under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960. The PCA’s Award binds India to “let flow” these waters and limits its ability to construct hydroelectric projects that could affect downstream flows into Pakistan.

This victory is being hailed as a diplomatic and legal success for Pakistan, strengthening its position in regional water disputes.

Background of the Indus Waters Treaty Dispute

The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, divides control over six rivers between the two countries. Pakistan was given rights over the three Western rivers, while India controls the three Eastern rivers.

The latest dispute arose in 2016 when Pakistan objected to the design of India’s Ratle and Kishanganga hydroelectric projects, claiming violations of the IWT. Concerns centered on India’s use of low-level outlets, gated spillways, and excessive pondage capacity that could manipulate water flow into Pakistan.

For more on the IWT framework, visit the World Bank’s official page on the Indus Waters Treaty.

Key Findings of the PCA Award

The PCA made several critical determinations in its binding decision:

• India must let Western rivers flow for Pakistan’s unrestricted use.

• Low-level outlets are prohibited unless strictly necessary for sediment control and must be minimal in size.

• Gated spillways should be avoided where possible; un-gated spillways are preferred.

• Pondage capacity must be calculated based on the minimum mean discharge over a seven-day period, with a maximum allowance of double this amount.

• Freeboard height should be just enough to ensure dam safety, not for additional water storage.

These rulings aim to prevent any unilateral advantage by India that could undermine Pakistan’s water security.

Pakistan’s Case Against India

Pakistan’s legal team argued that India’s designs violated Article III and Annexure D of the IWT, which restrict hydroelectric project designs to avoid harming downstream water rights.

Former Indus Water Commissioner Jamaat Ali Shah emphasized two main issues:

1. India cannot reduce water flows into Pakistan’s rivers through dam construction.

2. India’s Ratle and Kishanganga projects did not comply with treaty design requirements.

Shah confirmed that the PCA has already ruled in Pakistan’s favor on the first issue, with the second still pending further hearings.

India’s Response and Objections

India refused to participate in the arbitration proceedings but was kept informed at every stage. In April 2025, New Delhi announced it would hold the IWT “in abeyance,” a move rejected by both the PCA and the World Bank.

India challenged the PCA’s jurisdiction, but the court unanimously affirmed its authority to decide the matter. This legal stance reinforces the treaty’s enforceability even when one party refuses cooperation.

Expert Opinions on the Victory

Legal experts and water policy analysts have praised the outcome.

Ahmer Bilal Soofi, a former law minister, called the decision “a great success that strengthens Pakistan’s international standing.”

Jamaat Ali Shah described India’s suspension of the IWT as “dangerous,” warning it could destabilize regional cooperation. He urged Pakistan to take further legal action to ensure compliance, including a case to force India to share water flow data.

For a detailed legal perspective, see the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s Award document.

Impact on Future Water Relations

This ruling could reset the dynamics of Indo-Pak water diplomacy. By reaffirming strict treaty interpretation, the PCA has made it harder for either side to exploit grey areas in the IWT.

For Pakistan, the Award is a strategic win that:

• Protects agricultural and drinking water security.

• Strengthens its legal position in future disputes.

• Reinforces international norms against unilateral treaty suspension.

However, the unresolved Ratle and Kishanganga design disputes remain flashpoints. Continued engagement through commissioners and neutral experts will be critical to prevent further escalation.

Conclusion

The Pakistan wins water arbitration against India ruling marks a rare diplomatic and legal triumph for Islamabad. It safeguards critical water flows, curbs potentially harmful Indian dam designs, and reinforces the Indus Waters Treaty’s binding nature.

As both countries face mounting climate change and water scarcity challenges, this PCA decision offers a chance to rebuild cooperation — if political will exists on both sides.

For internal readers, see our analysis of Pakistan’s recent diplomatic wins on water rights.

External Links:

• Permanent Court of Arbitration

• World Bank – Indus Waters Treaty

Internal Links:

• Pakistan’s Recent Diplomatic Wins on Water Rights