EU to Push “Mitigation Package” at COP31 After UN Warns World Will Breach 1.5°C Target

October 6, 2026 — The European Union will press for a so-called “mitigation package” at the COP31 climate summit next month, after a recent United Nations report warned the world is on track to breach the key 1.5°C temperature goal enshrined in the Paris Agreement, according to a draft negotiating position seen by multiple outlets ahead of an EU environment ministers’ meeting scheduled for October 12.

Background

A UN Environment Programme (UNEP) report released in early September found that global temperature rise is set to cross 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, likely within the next few years, pushing climate risks and impacts to increasingly dangerous heights — a projection standing in direct tension with the target Parties to the UNFCCC enshrined in the 2015 Paris Agreement. For warming scenarios up to or less than 3°C, the report found glaciers could lose more than a quarter of their mass by 2100, raising sea levels by 12.5 centimetres.

Separately, the fourth annual Indicators of Global Climate Change report, compiled by roughly 70 scientists from over 50 institutions across 17 countries, found that human-induced warming reached 1.37°C above pre-industrial levels in 2025, rising at 0.27°C per decade — the fastest rate in the historical record. That report warned a permanent breach of the 1.5°C threshold is now fast approaching, with warming projected to surpass the target around 2030 if current emission rates continue.

COP31 President-Designate Murat Kurum responded to the UNEP findings by stressing that “every fraction of a degree matters, and every year spent in overshoot increases climate risks and the potential for irreversible losses.” He emphasized that exceeding 1.5°C “should not be seen as a new destination, but as a pathway the world must urgently work to minimize and reverse,” adding that “COP31 must turn this urgency into concrete action.”

What the EU Is Proposing

According to a draft seen by Bloomberg, EU negotiators want the Mitigation Work Programme — the UN’s existing mechanism for coordinating global emissions-cutting efforts, whose current mandate runs through COP31 — extended until at least 2040, alongside setting up a 2028 Global Stocktake to assess collective progress against climate goals.

Separate draft conclusions prepared for an EU environment ministers’ meeting on October 12, which will shape the bloc’s negotiating position for COP31, urge major emitters to adopt the “highest possible ambition” to bring temperatures back below the 1.5°C threshold. The draft states: “(The Council) urges all parties, particularly major emitters, to act with the highest possible ambition and make all efforts to return to a 1.5°C compatible trajectory and to minimise the magnitude and duration of the overshoot.” The draft also backs a transition away from fossil fuels, stronger mitigation efforts and accelerated electrification.

An Irish Presidency spokesperson said: “The EU wants to see a balanced outcome at COP31, which advances the implementation of the Paris Agreement and the first Global Stocktake, strengthens coalitions, and delivers practical progress,” adding that the mitigation programme will be central to achieving that balance.

A Harder Diplomatic Road

The EU has struggled over the past couple of years to secure global agreement on a faster pace of emissions cuts or to implement a 2023 commitment to transition away from fossil fuels. Instead, the bloc has become bogged down in disputes over finance and trade, and has lost a key ally after the United States withdrew from the Paris Agreement under President Donald Trump.

Earlier EU draft positions have struck a notably blunt tone, with Council conclusions expressing concern that “current ambition and implementation remain insufficient to limit warming to 1.5°C.” Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra has previously described recent COP outcomes as “underwhelming” compared to what the science demands. While the EU is expected to reaffirm its commitment to tripling adaptation finance and call for increased support to developing countries covering mitigation, adaptation and loss and damage, it has simultaneously stressed that public money alone cannot meet the scale of investment required — pointing to continued tension over how new finance commitments will actually be funded.

Conclusion

As COP31 approaches in Antalya this November, the EU’s push for a mitigation package reflects an attempt to keep the 1.5°C target at the center of international climate diplomacy even as UN science increasingly suggests the threshold will be breached in the near term. With the bloc’s negotiating position still being finalized ahead of the October 12 ministers’ meeting, and longstanding disputes over finance and implementation still unresolved, whether the EU can translate this renewed mitigation push into a binding outcome at Antalya remains an open and closely watched question.