Climate Change: Global security implications and Pakistan’s agricultural crisis

ISLAMABAD – Once considered an environmental issue, climate change has now become a critical security threat as over half of the global economy grows increasingly reliant on natural resources. This shift is reshaping geopolitical dynamics and prompting nations to revise their sustainability strategies.

The UNFCCC defines climate change as “a change in climate attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere, in addition to natural climate variability.” Sudden climate changes can lead to catastrophic events that threaten human survival, increasing vulnerability to non-traditional security threats like resource scarcity and flash floods.

Resource scarcity is a significant way climate change threatens international security. According to the World Economic Forum (WEF), India’s economy, heavily reliant on nature, is extremely vulnerable to climate risks. A third of its GDP comes from nature-dependent sectors, and the climate crisis could cost the country between 6.4% and 10% of its national income by 2100, potentially pushing 50 million more people into poverty. Climate change has already impacted regions in Africa and reduced water levels in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, which could heighten tensions between Middle Eastern countries such as Iraq, Syria, and Turkey. Additionally, climate change has driven up cocoa prices, affecting regions like Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire that produce two-thirds of the world’s cocoa. Intense heat waves and frequent droughts have severely impacted cocoa harvests, driving up global prices.

Non-traditional security threats have altered dynamics over time, disrupting chemical and biological processes. Rising global temperatures, new disease emergence, and changing precipitation patterns are becoming increasingly alarming. Human-induced disturbances, driven by current demands, are creating problems for future generations. The release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from industries and appliances damages the ozone layer, contributing to global warming. This underscores the need for nations to adopt climate-friendly strategies promptly, as climate change now poses both environmental and economic challenges.

Pakistan’s agricultural sector, a cornerstone of its economy, faces severe vulnerabilities due to climate change. Contributing about 24 percent of GDP, employing half the labor force, and serving as the largest source of foreign exchange earnings, agriculture is crucial for Pakistan. Frequent and intense weather events, such as floods and droughts, directly impact crop yields and food security. Changes in precipitation patterns and rising temperatures contribute to these vulnerabilities, threatening livelihoods and economic stability. Furthermore, climate change transcends national borders, involving international security issues such as transboundary water disputes and migration due to environmental stress. As Pakistan grapples with these challenges, it underscores the broader global implications of climate change and highlights the need for international cooperation and strategies.

Pakistan’s National Climate Change Policy-2012 (NCCP) provides a critical framework for tackling climate challenges through adaptation and mitigation strategies, highlighting the urgent need for comprehensive action. “Mitigation” involves reducing the intensity of global warming effects through measures that keep climate change within tolerable limits, while “Adaptation” involves adjusting to the existing impacts of climate change, such as saving water during heavy rainfall for future use and implementing green economy techniques to reduce land erosion.

The updated 2021 policy aligns with international agreements like the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), integrating recent initiatives such as the “Ten Billion Tree Tsunami” and advancements in renewable energy. While these efforts are commendable, continued and expanded action is essential to address emerging climate issues and ensure Pakistan’s development remains climate-compatible. The incumbent government has recently launched several key climate initiatives, including a large-scale tree-planting campaign to enhance forest cover, advanced water conservation projects to improve irrigation efficiency, and efforts to support sustainable agriculture and reduce carbon emissions.

As climate change presents increasingly complex challenges, it is crucial that national policies and international collaborations not only  strengthen but also translate into actionable measures.

Source: https://www.nation.com.pk/12-Aug-2024/climate-change-global-security-implications-and-pakistan-s-agricultural-crisis