India’s Aggressive Water Strategy Threatens Pakistan’s Lifeline: Indus River Projects Under Scrutiny

The Indus River Project is back in the global spotlight after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi ordered an aggressive reassessment of water rights in the Indus basin. This move follows a deadly terror attack in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, that claimed the lives of 26 civilians—a tragedy New Delhi attributes to Pakistan.

In response, India suspended its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960, escalating fears that South Asia could be headed toward a water war. Now, India is pushing forward with ambitious plans to divert more water from the Indus River system, which is vital for Pakistan’s agriculture and hydroelectric power.

Why the Indus River Project Matters

The Indus River Project isn’t just about engineering canals and dams—it’s about national survival for Pakistan. Over 80% of Pakistan’s farmland depends on the Indus system, along with most of its hydropower capacity.

Established in 1960 with the help of the World Bank, the Indus Waters Treaty was hailed as one of the most successful international water-sharing agreements. It survived wars, border disputes, and decades of political tension between the nuclear-armed neighbors.

But now, India’s strategic shift could end this fragile peace, leaving Pakistan’s food and energy security hanging in the balance.

What India Is Planning

According to recent government documents and officials briefed on the matter, India is planning to build or upgrade several major infrastructure projects along rivers traditionally designated for Pakistani use, such as the Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus rivers.

Key Elements of the Indus River Project:

• Ranbir Canal Expansion
  India plans to double the length of the historic Ranbir Canal to 120 km, increasing water diversion from 40 to 150 cubic meters per second. This would triple the current flow redirected toward Indian territory.
• New Dam Construction
  At least five storage dams are being discussed, including four on Chenab and Jhelum tributaries, which would give India unprecedented water retention power.
• Suspension of Treaty Participation
  India officially put its Indus Waters Treaty participation on hold after the Pahalgam incident, calling it outdated and in need of renegotiation.

This redirection would take years to implement, but the political message is immediate and crystal clear: India is weaponizing water in a geopolitical showdown.

Pakistan’s Response and Legal Route

Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar recently told lawmakers that the government had written to India, claiming the suspension of the treaty was illegal and warning that any attempt to divert water would be considered an “act of war.”

Pakistan is preparing to launch legal challenges in global forums, including:

• The World Bank, which brokered the original treaty.
• The International Court of Justice in The Hague.
• The Permanent Court of Arbitration.

“Water should not be weaponised,” stated Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb. “We don’t even want to consider any scenario which does not take into account the reinstatement of this treaty.”

International Reaction and Risks

According to David Michel, a water security expert from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, the repercussions extend beyond the subcontinent.

“As geopolitical competition across the region deepens, more than a few Indian observers fear that Delhi’s use of water against Islamabad risks licensing Beijing to adopt the same strategy against India,” Michel warned.

This concern stems from the fact that the Indus originates in Tibet, a region under Chinese control. Any aggressive precedent set by India could be mirrored by China in future disputes.

Conclusion: A Brewing Water War?

The escalating tensions over the Indus River Project show how climate, water, and politics are becoming dangerously entangled in South Asia. While India claims it is acting within its rights, the dramatic expansion plans are seen by many as a direct threat to Pakistan’s livelihood.

Unless cooler heads prevail, the region risks destabilizing a 65-year-old peace accord that has served as a rare symbol of cooperation. Experts and diplomats around the world are urging both sides to return to the negotiating table before a full-blown hydrological conflict erupts.

Resources & Citations

• Indus Waters Treaty – World Bank Overview
• Center for Strategic and International Studies – David Michel
• Internal Resource: India’s Hydro Projects Update 2025