Using Indus Waters Treaty as Weapon Threatens Regional Peace: PBF

The Pakistan Business Forum has warned that undermining the Indus Waters Treaty could have severe consequences for regional peace and stability.

Chief Organizer of the forum, Chaudhry Ahmad Jawad, cautioned that attempts to use water resources as a political or strategic tool could escalate tensions in South Asia and threaten the livelihoods of millions of people dependent on the Indus basin.

Speaking in an interview with Associated Press of Pakistan, Jawad emphasized that the treaty remains a critical framework for maintaining water stability between Pakistan and India.

Importance of the Indus Waters Treaty

The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960 with the support of the World Bank, governs the sharing of water from the Indus river system between Pakistan and India.

The agreement allocates the western rivers—Indus River, Jhelum River, and Chenab River—primarily to Pakistan, while the eastern rivers were allocated to India.

For more than six decades, the treaty has functioned as a key pillar of water management and cooperation in the region despite political tensions and conflicts between the two neighboring countries.

Concerns Over Treaty Suspension

According to Jawad, recent developments related to the treaty have raised significant concerns.

He stated that placing the treaty in “abeyance” or attempting to suspend it unilaterally has no legal justification under international law.

“Any changes to the treaty can only be made through mutual consent,” he said, stressing that unilateral actions undermine the legal framework that has ensured stability in water sharing for decades.

Jawad also warned that attempts to restrict or reduce water allocations under the treaty could escalate tensions and threaten regional stability.

Water Security and Agricultural Dependence

Pakistan’s agricultural system is heavily dependent on water from the Indus basin.

Jawad noted that more than 80 percent of Pakistan’s agriculture relies on irrigation networks linked to the Indus river system.

Any disruption in river flows could therefore have serious implications for food production, rural employment, and economic stability.

Farmers across the country rely on predictable water flows to cultivate crops such as wheat, rice, cotton, and sugarcane.

Even small changes in water availability during critical planting seasons could significantly affect agricultural output.

Legal and Diplomatic Implications

Jawad emphasized that water should never be used as a strategic tool in international relations.

According to him, stopping or diverting water resources allocated to another country under an international treaty constitutes a serious violation of established agreements.

He pointed out that the rivers covered under the treaty flow through regions including Jammu and Kashmir and large parts of Pakistan, making Pakistan a major stakeholder in the management of these water resources.

Legal experts argue that international agreements such as the Indus Waters Treaty are designed to prevent precisely such disputes by providing structured mechanisms for conflict resolution.

Climate Change and Water Challenges

In addition to geopolitical tensions, Jawad highlighted the growing impact of climate change on water resources in the region.

He warned that melting glaciers in the Himalayas and changing monsoon patterns are already creating uncertainty in water availability.

Combined with potential disruptions to river flows, these climate-related challenges could intensify water scarcity across Pakistan.

He also noted that reduced river flows could lead to declining groundwater levels, which many communities depend on for drinking water and irrigation.

Impact on Regional Food Security

The Indus basin supports millions of farmers and agricultural workers across Pakistan.

Jawad warned that any disruption to water flows could threaten food production not only in Pakistan but also across the wider South Asian region.

Agriculture in Pakistan contributes significantly to the national economy and plays a crucial role in ensuring food security for the country’s growing population.

Disruptions in irrigation water could therefore lead to higher food prices, reduced agricultural productivity, and economic instability in rural areas.

Call for Responsible Water Governance

Jawad urged all parties to uphold the Indus Waters Treaty and avoid policies that could escalate tensions over shared water resources.

He stressed that the treaty has long served as a cornerstone of agricultural stability and regional cooperation.

“The agreement is vital for the livelihoods of millions of people who depend on the Indus basin for farming, employment, and food security,” he said.

Jawad also warned that policies perceived as “water aggression” could push Pakistan to take protective measures to safeguard its water rights.

Conclusion

For more than sixty years, the Indus Waters Treaty has provided a stable framework for water sharing between Pakistan and India.

However, rising tensions and disputes surrounding the treaty have raised serious concerns about the future of water cooperation in South Asia.

Experts believe that maintaining the treaty’s integrity is essential not only for agricultural stability but also for regional peace and economic security.

As climate change and water scarcity continue to place pressure on shared resources, the need for cooperative water governance has never been more urgent.