Climate Change and Pakistan’s Water Crisis: 7 Shocking Ways It’s Getting Worse Amid India Tensions

Climate change and Pakistan’s water crisis have become inseparable realities. As temperatures rise and rivers dry up, Pakistan—a country heavily reliant on the Indus Basin—is facing one of the gravest environmental threats in South Asia. But a new danger looms: rising military tensions with India, culminating in Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent vow to stop water from crossing into Pakistan.

With climate challenges already reducing water availability through glacial melt, droughts, and erratic rainfall, India’s move to suspend the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty could create an unprecedented humanitarian and environmental catastrophe.

Why Climate Change Is Drying Up Pakistan

Pakistan is among the most water-stressed countries in the world. According to the Germanwatch 2025 Climate Risk Index, Pakistan was ranked as the most vulnerable country to climate impacts in 2022.

Some key climate-induced water challenges include:

• Glacial melt from the Himalayas, accelerating river flow in short bursts followed by scarcity.
• Longer drought seasons, making agriculture unpredictable.
• Urban water shortages in major cities like Karachi and Lahore.
• Super floods, like those in 2022, that devastated infrastructure and left 10 million people without safe drinking water.

“There’s already difficulty for local populations to have consistent access to water,” says Bhargabi Bharadwaj, a research associate at Chatham House.

India’s Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty

On April 23, 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, which had regulated the shared use of Indus River water since 1960. He declared:

“India’s water will be used for India’s interests.”

While experts note that India lacks the infrastructure to stop water flow entirely, it could create seasonal disruptions that affect the timing of the water flow, especially during low-flow months (December to February).

“Stopping the flow isn’t really possible,” says Dr. Hassaan Khan from Tufts University, “but India can create timing disturbances that Pakistan’s agricultural system may not be prepared for.”

Historical Roots: Who Owns the Indus?

The Indus River Basin was divided after the 1947 partition of British India, leaving the headwaters in India but irrigation systems in Pakistan.

To resolve tensions, the World Bank-brokered Indus Waters Treaty was signed in 1960. It granted:

• Eastern rivers (Beas, Ravi, Sutlej) to India
• Western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan

Despite wars and conflicts, the treaty has endured for over six decades—until now.

Impact on Agriculture and Daily Life

The Indus Basin supports 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture and a third of its hydropower. Disruptions in its flow could:

• Destroy crop cycles, especially in Punjab and Sindh.
• Threaten livestock survival in rural areas.
• Impact hydroelectric power, increasing load shedding.
• Worsen urban water shortages in cities like Islamabad and Quetta.

Furthermore, rural-urban migration is increasing, placing immense strain on city water systems, which are already underdeveloped.

Geopolitical Ramifications and Military Tensions

India’s latest move comes amid escalating border skirmishes and rising nationalism on both sides. Water has now become a strategic asset, possibly even a weapon of war.

Key concerns:

• The treaty’s collapse could spark international diplomatic crises.
• Water flow control may be used as a geopolitical pressure tool.
• The dispute may fuel military confrontation over vital resources.

Yet, as Bharadwaj notes, “The Indus Water Treaty has survived two full-scale wars. Its collapse now would mark a dangerous new era.”

Conclusion: What Lies Ahead for Pakistan?

The perfect storm of climate change and Pakistan’s water crisis is being compounded by political brinkmanship. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty might be symbolic for now, but even minor disruptions in water flow could lead to major consequences for Pakistan’s economy, health, and social stability.

Action Steps for Pakistan:

• Invest in rainwater harvesting and wastewater treatment.
• Build domestic water storage infrastructure.
• Promote climate-resilient crops.
• Engage in diplomatic dialogue with India under international mediation.

With over 75% of its renewable water coming from outside its borders, Pakistan must act decisively—internally and externally—to safeguard its future.

External Resources

• UNICEF Report on Pakistan Floods and Water Access
• Indus Waters Treaty Summary – World Bank
• Germanwatch Climate Risk Index 2025

Internal Links

• How Climate Change Impacts South Asia’s Food Security
• Pakistan’s Energy Crisis: Hydropower at Risk
• Solutions to Pakistan’s Urban Water Woes