Climate Finance Will Be the First Casualty of Rising Militarism: Ali T. Sheikh’s Dire Warning Ahead of COP30
Climate Finance will be the first casualty of rising militarism, warns Ali T. Sheikh ahead of COP30 in Brazil. As geopolitical tensions rise, Pakistan must adopt strategic diplomacy and climate resilience strategies.
Ali T. Sheikh warns that as nations increase defense budgets, climate finance commitments will shrink dramatically. In July 2025, NATO countries agreed to raise defense expenditure by 5% of GDP.
“The axe will fall on climate finance,” Sheikh emphasized. “It will undo 30 years of climate cooperation since the first COP.”
This shift threatens vital adaptation and mitigation programs, particularly for vulnerable nations like Pakistan.
Geopolitical Shifts and Militarism
The world is witnessing a dangerous surge in militarism, overshadowing global cooperation. Rising right-wing extremism, authoritarian energy politics, and global insecurity risk turning climate action into an afterthought.
“Against this backdrop, understanding how COPs function—and who gets a seat at the table—becomes even more critical,” Sheikh stressed.
Ali T. Sheikh’s Warning Ahead of COP30
Unlike the past three COPs hosted by oil-producing autocracies, COP30 will be held in Brazil, where indigenous rights and biodiversity protection carry stronger weight.
For Pakistan, this presents a chance to learn and reposition itself. Sheikh urged Pakistan to showcase successful adaptation projects, such as Sindh’s housing program for flood-affected communities and the evacuation of over 3 million people during the 2025 floods.
Trump’s UN Speech and Its Fallout
On September 23, 2025, former U.S. President Donald Trump delivered a 56-minute speech at the UN General Assembly, dismissing climate change as a “greatest con job ever.”
Sheikh strongly criticized Trump’s remarks:
“From the perspective of a developing country like Pakistan, such statements are a profound denial of the lived reality of millions already on the climate frontline.”
Pakistan has ranked first on GermanWatch’s Climate Risk Index 2025, suffering USD 30 billion in damages from the 2022 floods.
For Pakistan, climate resilience is not a political choice—it is national survival.
Pakistan’s Climate Struggles and Opportunities
Sheikh called for Pakistan to move beyond protest toward partnerships at COP30:
- Showcasing resilience projects like AI-driven housing designs.
- Strategic pavilion engagement—speaking at other countries’ pavilions for greater reach.
- Regional cooperation on floods, droughts, and storms.
The Regional Dimension: India, Pakistan, and the Indus Waters Treaty
Climate risks in South Asia are inherently regional. Sheikh emphasized that Pakistan and India must open dialogue, even modestly.
The Indus Waters Treaty, suspended since the April 2025 Pahalgam attack, highlights the fragile state of water diplomacy. COP30 could serve as a neutral platform for:
- Transparent exchange of monsoon rainfall data.
- Transboundary water management collaboration.
This could transform climate cooperation into regional peace-building.
The Role of Brazil and COP30 Expectations
With the Amazon rainforest hosting COP30, expectations are high. Delegates hope Brazil will lead on:
- Deforestation control
- Biodiversity protection
- Indigenous rights
- Climate justice
Yet, ongoing deforestation and oil drilling in Brazil complicate its leadership role.
Sheikh warned: “We still have to sort out who pays, who delivers, and how quickly.”
Behind-the-Scenes Diplomacy at COPs
Sheikh reminded that COPs are not just about plenary speeches:
- Informal pledges
- Private sector engagement
- Coalition building among like-minded nations
Often, the real deals happen in corridors and side-events.
For Pakistan, this is where influence can be maximized.
Conclusion: A Critical Turning Point
Ali T. Sheikh’s warning that Climate Finance Will Be the First Casualty of Rising Militarism is a stark reminder of what is at stake at COP30.
For Pakistan, survival depends on climate partnerships, regional cooperation, and forward-looking strategies.
COP30 in Brazil is not just another climate summit—it is a critical turning point in whether the world chooses militarism or sustainability.
