Fragile Future or Strategic Survival? Indus Waters Treaty Faces a Cold Start for Collaboration

Indus Waters Treaty, the cornerstone of water sharing between India and Pakistan since 1960, now stands on unstable ground. Once hailed as a model for transboundary cooperation, the treaty is under intense scrutiny amid rising geopolitical tensions and worsening climate threats.

The region is witnessing not just environmental degradation but a growing fear of hydro-diplomacy turning hostile. With India’s statements suggesting weaponisation of water, and Pakistan’s deep concerns over new infrastructure projects, the treaty must evolve or risk becoming irrelevant.

The Political Lens: Water as a Weapon

The IWT was signed in an era when war and peace were starkly separate states. Today, India and Pakistan—nuclear-armed neighbours with unresolved territorial issues—exist in a semi-permanent state of tension. After Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 2016 assertion that “blood and water cannot flow together,” Pakistan’s fears of water being used as a geopolitical weapon intensified.

Although India lacks the capacity to significantly alter flows to Pakistan on the Jhelum due to geography and infrastructural constraints, its projects on the Chenab River raise alarming possibilities. Unlike hydropower installations, these are seen as military-grade storage capacities designed to withhold water during critical periods, not generate electricity.

Climate Change and the Indus Basin

The upper Indus basin has already lost 30% of its snow mass, a direct consequence of glacier melt, urbanisation, and wetland depletion. These environmental pressures are beyond the control of any one nation and are shrinking the overall water pie, making riparian politics more combustible.

Without collective adaptation, Pakistan and India risk entering a future where climate-induced scarcity will escalate hostilities. This calls for a bold rethinking of water diplomacy in the region.

India’s Chenab Strategy and Pakistan’s Concerns

While the Jhelum River poses minimal tactical risk to Pakistan due to terrain and usage patterns in Indian-administered Kashmir, the Chenab River presents a different picture. Projects initiated since 2016 suggest India is developing strategic storage infrastructure, not merely civil projects.

These initiatives—often exempted from Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA) under new Indian laws—may not be overtly aggressive, but they are inherently provocative to Pakistan. Experts also warn of catastrophic dam failure scenarios in this seismically active region, threatening downstream communities in Pakistan.

Why Collaboration Is Crucial Now

There is a growing realization that South Asia’s water challenges can’t be solved through unilateral actions. Despite the animosity, both countries share not just a river but a shared fate.

As the 2022 National Security Policy of Pakistan emphasized geo-economics over geo-politics, there’s a window for introducing climate and water cooperation as neutral, apolitical engagement points. A “Cold Start for Collaboration” could redirect military posturing into climate resilience planning.

Reforming the Indus Waters Treaty: A Way Forward

The IWT is outdated. Signed in 1960, it does not account for:

• Environmental flows
• Live storage capacities
• Population booms
• Climate variability
• Infrastructure EIA protocols

Pakistan can propose supplementary protocols under the existing treaty framework using the platform of the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC). Key reforms may include:

• Telemetric data sharing for real-time monitoring
• Binding EIAs for upstream projects
• Third-party audits by neutral international agencies
• Reassessment of cumulative storage capacities

This reform agenda would not only modernize the IWT but offer a legal buffer against escalating threats.

Global Lessons for Regional Water Diplomacy

Nations with shared water resources—like the Nile basin countries or the EU’s Danube Commission—have transitioned from conflict postures to cooperation paradigms by focusing on shared threats like climate change.

India and Pakistan can draw inspiration from:

• Mekong River Commission (Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand)
• Senegal River Basin Authority (West Africa)
• International Joint Commission (Canada-USA)

These bodies demonstrate how hydro-diplomacy rooted in science, not politics, can mitigate conflict.

Conclusion: From Mutually Assured Destruction to Mutual Survival

The Indus Waters Treaty has weathered over six decades of hostility, largely because climate change had not yet become an existential threat. Now, it must evolve beyond its original architecture or risk collapse under the weight of its inadequacy.

South Asia—home to two billion people—cannot afford a hydro-political breakdown. If India and Pakistan don’t separate conflict from climate, they will find themselves locked in a zero-sum game with no winners.

It is time for both nations to embrace a “Mutually Assured Survival Strategy (MASS)” instead of clinging to doctrines of destruction. The Cold Start doctrine must shift from military maneuvers to collaborative climate resilience.

Water is life. And life should not be hostage to politics.

Internal Links (Suggestions)

• Pakistan’s National Climate Policy
• India’s Water Infrastructure Developments

External Links

• World Bank – Indus Waters Treaty
• UN Water Cooperation Resources