Population Growth and Climate Change: Grave Challenges Threaten Pakistan’s Future

Population growth and climate change are no longer distant worries for Pakistan—they are immediate existential challenges threatening national development, social well-being, and economic stability. On World Population Day, Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue Muhammad Aurangzeb made it clear: Pakistan cannot become a $3 trillion economy by 2047 without directly confronting these two critical issues.

Population Growth and Climate Change: Twin Threats

At an event hosted by the Ministry of National Health Services, Aurangzeb warned that unchecked population growth and climate change are destabilising forces undermining the nation’s progress. With a staggering population growth rate of 2.55%, Pakistan is adding nearly 6 million people annually—more than the population of an entire Scandinavian country.

Meanwhile, the effects of climate change—from heatwaves and floods to glacial melt and water shortages—are already threatening food security, urban infrastructure, and rural livelihoods.

These issues are deeply interlinked. Overpopulation strains natural resources, worsens carbon emissions, and reduces the country’s resilience to climate shocks. The consequences? A severe threat to Pakistan’s future economic viability and public health.

Economic Vision 2047 at Risk

Aurangzeb reaffirmed the government’s vision of transforming Pakistan into a $3 trillion economy by 2047, but added a stark caveat: “We can’t build a sustainable economy on a crumbling foundation of climate vulnerability and population explosion.”

He called for a major paradigm shift in how development and resource allocation are approached. This includes rethinking the National Finance Commission (NFC) Award to incorporate population metrics and climate stress factors in the formula.

National Finance Commission Award – External Link to official NFC overview

Stunting, Learning Poverty, and the Human Development Crisis

Pakistan’s demographic crisis is not just about numbers—it’s about outcomes. Aurangzeb pointed to a shocking statistic: 40% of Pakistani children under five suffer from stunting. This means millions are at risk of lifelong cognitive, physical, and economic disadvantages.

He warned that “our future leadership is already at risk,” and that addressing stunting must go hand-in-hand with resolving learning poverty. The proposed solution? A comprehensive, end-to-end approach focusing on:

• Nutrition
• Sanitation
• Clean drinking water
• Family planning
• Public awareness

UNICEF on Child Stunting – Authoritative global source

Empowering Women: A Critical Step Forward

Women make up half the population but remain grossly underrepresented in Pakistan’s economic and social systems. Aurangzeb urged policymakers to prioritize women’s empowerment as a national development imperative.

He emphasized:

• Inclusive workforce participation
• Education access for girls
• Skills development programs
• Health and reproductive services

See how Pakistan’s education reforms impact gender equality

By investing in women, Pakistan can not only reduce population pressures but also double its economic potential.

Rethinking Budgets and Donor Engagement

Despite an annual development budget of Rs5.2 trillion (Rs1 trillion federal + Rs4.2 trillion provincial), Aurangzeb lamented that resources are often misallocated. He proposed a unified national budgeting strategy to ensure optimal fund usage across key sectors like health, education, and environment.

He further criticized the conventional focus on infrastructure in donor programs. “We’ve built enough roads—it’s time to invest in people,” he said.

Aurangzeb referenced Pakistan’s 10-year Country Partnership Framework with the World Bank, where:

• 4 out of 6 pillars focus on population and climate
• One-third of $20 billion funding is earmarked for human development
• Annual allocations are around $600–700 million

He stressed the need to move beyond symbolic steps—like tax exemptions on contraceptives—and deploy funds for real impact.

Strategic Investment in Human Capital

The Finance Minister strongly advocated for aligning national priorities with human capital development. This includes:

• Building an integrated system of healthcare and reproductive services
• Expanding vocational training and digital literacy
• Strengthening climate resilience in vulnerable communities
• Establishing accountability mechanisms to track impact

Such an approach will allow Pakistan to withstand external shocks, reduce poverty, and ensure inclusive growth for decades to come.

World Bank Country Partnership Framework

Conclusion

Pakistan stands at a critical crossroads. With the looming threats of population growth and climate change, inaction is not an option. Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb’s speech serves as a wake-up call to policymakers, donors, and civil society alike.

To build a future-proof nation and achieve the ambitious $3 trillion economy goal by 2047, the country must:

• Reform how resources are allocated
• Invest in women, children, and education
• Redirect focus from concrete to capabilities
• Tackle climate and demographic crises head-on

The time to act is now—because investing in people is the only road to prosperity.