Water or War? Why Pakistan–Afghanistan Cooperation Is Essential for Climate Stability and Regional Peace
Rising dam construction on shared rivers threatens Pakistan-Afghanistan relations as climate change intensifies water scarcity. Cooperation is vital for peace and survival.
As tensions between Islamabad and Kabul escalated toward the end of 2025, Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government moved unilaterally to construct dams along the Kunar and Kabul rivers, igniting fresh concerns over water security in Pakistan.
With climate change intensifying glacier melt in the Hindu Kush and disrupting rainfall patterns across South and Central Asia, these shared river systems are rapidly becoming strategic assets — and potential flashpoints for conflict.
Water, once a natural connector between neighbouring states, now risks becoming a geopolitical weapon.
Afghanistan’s Dam Projects and Their Strategic Implications
Afghanistan is home to five major river basins:
- Amu Darya
- Indus–Kabul
- Northern Basin
- Harirod–Murghab
- Helmand
Pakistan and Afghanistan share nine rivers, with:
Three flowing through Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Six passing through Balochistan
The Kunar River, originating in Chitral, flows nearly 482 kilometres through Afghanistan before joining the Kabul River and eventually returning to Pakistan.
Meanwhile, the Kabul River provides drinking water and livelihoods to nearly 20 million people across both countries before merging with the Indus River.
Unilateral dam construction without consultation threatens to disrupt these lifelines.
Climate Change Is Shrinking a Shared Resource
Climate change is dramatically reshaping the hydrology of the region:
Rapid glacier retreat in the Hindu Kush
Increasingly erratic rainfall
More frequent droughts and flash floods
While short-term glacial melt may temporarily boost river flows, scientists warn of severe long-term declines once ice reserves diminish.
For Pakistan — already among the world’s most water-stressed nations — the implications are severe.
Pakistan’s Water Crisis in Numbers:
| Year | Per Capita Water Availability |
|---|---|
| 1947 | ~5,600 cubic metres |
| 2023 | ~930 cubic metres |
This sharp decline places Pakistan dangerously close to absolute water scarcity thresholds.
Water Stress as a Trigger for Conflict
Shrinking water supplies are not just an environmental problem — they are a national security threat.
In Pakistan:
Reduced irrigation threatens food production
Crop losses drive inflation and rural poverty
Livelihood insecurity fuels social unrest
Afghanistan, ranked among the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries, faces:
- Persistent droughts
- Agricultural collapse risks
- Over 80% of population dependent on farming
Without coordinated management, water scarcity could accelerate instability on both sides of the border.
Pakistan’s Rights as a Lower Riparian State
International water law supports Pakistan’s right to:
Equitable and reasonable water use
Protection from significant upstream harm
Prior notification of water infrastructure projects
Transparent data sharing
These principles exist precisely to prevent unilateral actions from destabilising shared river basins.
Global Models for Water Cooperation
Across the world, countries facing similar challenges have created cooperative frameworks:
Nile Basin Initiative
Mekong River Commission
Indus Waters Treaty
These institutions:
- Share hydrological data
- Coordinate infrastructure development
- Resolve disputes peacefully
- Adapt to climate impacts
Pakistan and Afghanistan could establish a Joint Water Commission to replicate these successes.
The Role of Regional and International Partners
External actors can help facilitate cooperation:
China – technical expertise & regional influence
World Bank – funding for sustainable water infrastructure
UN agencies – climate adaptation and governance support
Neutral third-party involvement can build trust where political relations remain fragile.
The Dangers of Weaponising Water
Using water as leverage risks:
Escalating bilateral tensions
International isolation
Economic destabilisation
Humanitarian crises
History shows that attempts to politicise shared rivers — including efforts to undermine the Indus Waters Treaty — have received little international support.
Water weaponisation rarely succeeds and often backfires.
Domestic Water Governance Must Improve Too
Cooperation alone will not solve the crisis.
Pakistan must:
Reduce irrigation inefficiencies
Fix urban water leakage
Shift to water-efficient crops
Modernise water management
Afghanistan must:
Develop storage responsibly
Improve conservation
Build hydrological monitoring systems
Better domestic governance reduces pressure on shared rivers.
A Roadmap for Shared Survival
Experts propose four urgent steps:
Preventive Water Diplomacy
Create a Pakistan–Afghanistan Joint Water Commission
Transparency
Share data on dam projects, flows, and climate impacts
Regional Cooperation
Engage China, World Bank, and UN institutions
Domestic Reform
Improve water efficiency and conservation systems
Final Reflection: Cooperation or Conflict
Pakistan and Afghanistan stand at a crossroads.
They can:
Build cooperative frameworks for shared resilience
OR
Drift toward conflict driven by scarcity and mistrust
Bound by geography, rivers, and fate, water cooperation is not a diplomatic luxury — it is an existential necessity.
In a climate-stressed future, shared survival depends on shared governance.
