A Decade After Paris: COP30 Highlights Pakistan’s Deadly Extreme Heat Crisis

COP30 has concluded in Belém, Brazil, a symbolic host city at the edge of the Amazon — one of Earth’s most vital climate regulators and increasingly one of the regions battered by extreme heat and rising humidity.

The summit marked ten years since the Paris Agreement, which promised to limit global warming and protect the world’s most vulnerable nations. Yet as diplomats return home, Pakistan remains dangerously exposed to the same escalating climate risk that negotiations continue to struggle to contain: lethal heat extremes.

Heat Is the Deadliest Climate Threat on Earth

Heat has emerged as the leading cause of climate-related deaths globally, often called the “silent killer” because it leaves little visible destruction.

Each year, extreme heat causes an estimated 500,000 deaths worldwide — exceeding fatalities from floods, cyclones, wildfires, and earthquakes combined.

Beyond mortality, heat:

• Overloads healthcare systems
• Strains electricity grids
• Reduces labour productivity
• Disproportionately impacts low-income communities, outdoor workers, women, and the elderly

Why Humid Heat Is Becoming More Dangerous

As temperatures rise, both dry heat and humid heat are intensifying.

In high humidity, the human body’s cooling mechanism begins to fail. Sweat no longer evaporates efficiently, allowing core body temperature to rise rapidly. Prolonged exposure can lead to:

• Heat stroke
• Cardiovascular and respiratory failure
• Kidney damage
• Organ failure and death — even among healthy individuals

Research shows humid heat events have more than doubled since 1979, and increasingly do not cool at night, especially in dense urban areas where heat becomes trapped day after day.

This is no longer a future threat. It is already happening.

Pakistan Is Already Living in the Climate Future

Pakistan — the world’s fifth most populous country — is among the most climate-vulnerable nations globally, with extreme heat at the centre of that vulnerability.

In April 2025, temperatures reached 45°C weeks earlier than historically normal.

Jacobabad: A Global Heat Danger Zone

Jacobabad, frequently listed among the hottest places on Earth, has repeatedly crossed wet-bulb temperature survivability thresholds, where heat and humidity overwhelm the body’s ability to cool itself.

This level of heat is considered potentially fatal within hours without access to cooling.

Heat Impacts Are Already Killing Thousands

Between 2012 and 2021, an estimated 25,000 deaths per year in Pakistan were linked to heat — about 40% higher than in the 1990s.

Experts widely believe these figures are underreported due to weak heat illness monitoring systems.

The economic toll is severe:

• Billions of working hours lost annually
• Major income losses in agriculture and construction
• Rising healthcare costs

Lethal heat in Pakistan is not a 2050 projection. It is a present reality.

Why the Paris Agreement Still Matters for Pakistan

When adopted in 2015, the Paris Agreement aimed to limit warming to 1.5°C and avoid catastrophic climate breakdown.

At the time, the world was headed toward over 3.5°C of warming.

Today:

• The planet has warmed about 1.3°C
• Current pledges still point toward ~2.6°C — dangerous but far better than pre-Paris trajectories

For Pakistan, Every Fraction of a Degree Matters

At:

• Current warming: Extreme heat days already rising rapidly
• 2.6°C: Dangerous heat becomes routine
• 4°C: Nearly four months of extreme heat annually

Full delivery on Paris commitments could prevent roughly one month of dangerous heat every year in Pakistan alone.

This is not symbolic diplomacy.
It is life-saving risk reduction.

Cities, Health and the Next Climate Battlefield

Urbanisation is rapidly amplifying heat risks.

The IPCC confirms that:

• Cities warm faster than surrounding regions
• Dense construction, limited green cover, and waste heat trap temperatures
• By 2050, nearly 70% of the global population will live in cities

For Pakistan — urbanising faster than any other South Asian country — this is a looming crisis multiplier.

Recent COPs have begun framing heat as a public health emergency, embedding health into adaptation frameworks. But policy statements mean little without on-the-ground heat resilience.

Initiatives on urban cooling, heat action plans, and climate-resilient infrastructure must move from promises to implementation.

COP30 Should Have Been Pakistan’s Moment of Urgency

Pakistan is already experiencing the future many countries still hope to avoid.

COP30 should have been used to:

• Demand stronger global emissions cuts
• Push heat resilience as a core adaptation priority
• Secure finance for cooling, housing, and public health
• Reframe heat as a development and survival threat — not a seasonal inconvenience

A Decade After Paris: Delivery Must Replace Declarations

Climate diplomacy can bend the curve of risk — but only real delivery will protect lives.

As negotiations continue inside air-conditioned halls, millions across Pakistan are already negotiating survival with rising heat.

For Pakistan, COP30 must mark a turning point — not another ignored warning.