Water Flow in Chenab River Stabilises After Alarming Record Low, Easing Immediate Crisis

Water flow in Chenab River has finally stabilised after touching its lowest level in the last 10 years, offering short-term relief to Pakistan while deepening long-standing concerns over India’s alleged manipulation of transboundary rivers under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT).

According to the Punjab Irrigation Department, the river’s flow, which had sharply declined earlier this month, began rising again on December 17 and returned to normal levels by December 19. Current discharge levels range between 4,505 cusecs and 6,494 cusecs, with authorities confirming that close monitoring will continue.

However, Pakistani officials stress that while the immediate crisis has eased, the structural threat to water security, food supply, and regional stability remains unresolved.

Decade-Low Water Flow in Chenab Sparks National Concern

During the first half of December, water flow in Chenab River plunged to levels not recorded in the last decade, alarming farmers, irrigation officials, and policymakers across Punjab.

Officials noted abrupt and unexplained variations between December 7 and December 15, disrupting irrigation schedules at a critical stage of Pakistan’s agricultural cycle, especially for wheat sowing.

Earlier this year, similar variations were recorded between April 30 and May 21, suggesting a recurring pattern rather than an isolated incident.

Pakistan Accuses India of Manipulating Baglihar Dam

Pakistan has formally stated that India first emptied and later refilled the Baglihar Dam on the Chenab River, causing sudden drops and surges downstream.

Under the Indus Waters Treaty, India is not permitted to store or release water in a manner that alters natural river flows without prior notification and data sharing.

External reference: Indus Waters Treaty – World Bank

Indus Waters Treaty Under Severe Strain

The Indus Waters Treaty (1960), brokered by the World Bank, governs water sharing between India and Pakistan. While the treaty has survived wars and political crises, Pakistani officials argue it is now facing systematic erosion.

Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Senator Ishaq Dar stated that India’s recent actions represent “material breaches that strike at the heart of the treaty.”

Ishaq Dar Warns Against Dangerous Water Weaponization

During an urgent diplomatic briefing in Islamabad, Ishaq Dar warned foreign diplomats that India’s attempts to weaponize water threaten peace and stability in South Asia.

“Stopping or diverting water will amount to war crimes. India’s recent move is a clear example of using water as a weapon.”

Dar emphasized that Pakistan will not compromise on its water rights, linking river manipulation directly to food insecurity, economic instability, and humanitarian risk.

Violation of International Law and Diplomatic Escalation

The Pakistan Foreign Office confirmed it has sent a formal clarification request to India after observing unusual variations in the Chenab’s flow.

Dar highlighted that India released water without prior notification, violating not only the Indus Waters Treaty but also international water law norms.

External Resource: UN Convention on the Law of Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses

Indus Water Commissioner Rejects India’s Justification

Pakistan’s Indus Water Commissioner Mehr Ali Shah reaffirmed that India has no legal basis to block or alter Chenab River flows.

He stressed before foreign diplomats that Pakistan has consistently complied with treaty obligations, including data sharing and joint oversight.

“India cannot unilaterally modify river flows. These actions threaten Pakistan’s water security and regional stability.”

Agriculture and Food Security at Risk

Chenab River is a lifeline for Punjab’s irrigation system, supporting millions of farmers and feeding Pakistan’s food supply chain.

Manipulation of water during critical sowing periods threatens:

• Wheat production
• Rural livelihoods
• National food security
• Inflation control

Illegal Hydropower Projects Deepen Crisis

Ishaq Dar also flagged India’s hydropower projects, including Kishanganga and Ratle, which allegedly violate treaty design specifications.

These projects:

• Increase India’s water storage capacity
• Enable flow manipulation
• Undermine downstream security

According to Dar, such actions endanger 240 million Pakistanis, escalating risks of floods, droughts, and humanitarian crises.

Why Water Flow in Chenab River Is a Regional Flashpoint

The water flow in Chenab River is not just an environmental issue—it is a geopolitical fault line.

Unchecked treaty violations could:

• Set a dangerous international precedent
• Destabilize South Asia
• Undermine international water law

External Link: International Water Law Explained – IUCN

What Comes Next: Monitoring, Diplomacy, and Accountability

While the river has returned to normal flow, Pakistan remains vigilant. The Punjab Irrigation Department has confirmed continuous monitoring, while diplomatic engagement continues.

Pakistan expects India to:

• Respond to official queries
• Resume data sharing
• Refrain from unilateral actions
• Fully comply with Indus Waters Treaty

Failure to do so, officials warn, could escalate tensions beyond diplomacy.