Chenab River Crisis: Massive Inflow Surge Sparks India-Pakistan Water Conflict | 7 Urgent Facts

Introduction: The Sudden Surge in Chenab River

The Chenab River water conflict took a dramatic turn this week as the river’s flow surged from 3,100 cusecs to 26,000 cusecs overnight. This unexpected inflow from India into Pakistan’s territory raised serious alarms in Lahore and Islamabad. The development follows India’s unilateral suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)—a historic water-sharing agreement brokered by the World Bank in 1960.

India’s Unilateral Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty

On April 23, India declared it would no longer abide by the IWT, citing unverified claims that Pakistan was behind the death of 26 tourists in Pahalgam. This move shocked diplomatic circles, as the treaty had survived wars and conflicts for over 65 years. By suspending the IWT, India has effectively opened the door to manipulating western rivers like Chenab, which are legally allocated to Pakistan under the treaty.

Learn more about the Indus Waters Treaty

The Inflow Spike: What Happened at Head Marala?

According to Punjab Irrigation Minister Kazim Pirzada, the inflow at Head Marala was recorded at 3,100 cusecs at 9:00 PM on Monday, but it dramatically rose to 26,000 cusecs by Tuesday morning.

“We have witnessed changes in the river [Chenab] which are not natural at all,” said Pirzada.
“This sudden shift will mostly affect areas with fewer alternative water sources.”

The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) confirmed the unusual surge. Their daily report indicated a total inflow of 188,800 cusecs, with only 7,700 cusecs released from Chenab at Marala, showing deliberate water retention upstream.

Pakistan’s Reaction: “Act of War”

Responding to India’s aggressive water tactics, Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tarar declared in the National Assembly:

“Any attempt to divert Pakistan’s water will trigger a strong response. Tampering with our rivers will be considered an act of war.”

The harsh language reflects the growing anxiety over India’s increasing control over Pakistan’s water resources, particularly in critical crop-growing months.

Reservoir Flushing Without Notice

India began “reservoir flushing” at the Salal and Baglihar hydropower projects in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) without prior notice—violating IWT protocols.

This process involves:

• Releasing sediment-heavy water downstream
• Creating sudden floods or drops in flow
• Potentially damaging Pakistan’s irrigation infrastructure

According to Reuters, sluice gates at Baglihar were later lowered, temporarily restricting water—another form of water weaponization.

Hydropower Expansion in IIOJK

India has fast-tracked construction of four massive hydroelectric projects on the Chenab River:

• Pakal Dul – 1,000 MW
• Kiru – 624 MW
• Kwar – 540 MW
• Ratle – 850 MW

Together, these projects aim to generate 3,014 MW of power—mostly by controlling water flow that legally belongs to Pakistan. A leaked document from India’s Ministry of Power showed accelerated timelines from 2026 to 2028 for these plants.

Pakistan has already challenged the Ratle project at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, citing violations related to pondage and turbine design.

Expert Warnings on Agriculture Impact

Think tanks like the Jinnah Institute have warned about the long-term damage of India’s water manipulation:

“Even small changes in the timing of water releases can disrupt sowing calendars, damage crops, and threaten food security.”

With Pakistan already battling climate change, drought, and water mismanagement, India’s aggressive control could tip the scales into full-blown agricultural crisis—especially in Punjab and Sindh.

Analysis: Strategic Water War?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently declared:

“India’s water will be stopped for India’s interests, and it will be utilised for India.”

This rhetoric aligns with India’s recent actions that many experts describe as water aggression. With ongoing disputes in The Hague and no formal mechanism left after India’s IWT exit, the Chenab River water conflict could define the next chapter of India-Pakistan tensions.

Conclusion: A Brewing Water Crisis

The Chenab River water conflict is no longer just a regional issue—it is a looming humanitarian and agricultural disaster. With India’s unilateral suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, its aggressive dam-building, and sudden manipulation of river inflows, Pakistan faces a serious threat to its food security and sovereignty.

The international community must act swiftly to mediate, as even small changes in river dynamics could result in economic losses, food shortages, and regional instability. As water becomes the new weapon, the time to act is now.

Internal & External Links

• World Bank on Indus Waters Treaty
• Permanent Court of Arbitration – Ratle Dispute
• Jinnah Institute Analysis on Water Conflicts
• Pakistan Water Crisis – Internal Link to Related Post