Pakistan Flooding Alert: India’s Thein Dam Water Release Sparks Dangerous Crisis in Punjab

Pakistan flooding alert has reached a critical level as authorities warn of “very high to exceptionally high” flooding risks in Punjab. The crisis escalated after India opened all gates of its Thein Dam on the Ravi River, releasing excess water downstream into Pakistan.

According to Pakistan’s Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA), satellite images showed Thein Dam was 97% full before the release, triggering fears of catastrophic floods. India had also earlier warned Pakistan about potential releases from the Madhopur Dam, citing humanitarian grounds amid its own record monsoon rains.

Officials in Lahore described the flood situation as “grave,” with the next 48 hours deemed critical for managing water flow, evacuation, and damage control.

Punjab: The Agricultural Heartland at Risk

Punjab, often called the breadbasket of Pakistan, is home to half of the nation’s 240 million people and produces most of its wheat and rice. Floodwaters threaten vast agricultural fields, endangering food supplies and farmers’ livelihoods.

Authorities say 16 villages are currently at immediate risk, with hundreds more on high alert. Flooding in Punjab’s fertile plains could devastate crops at the peak of monsoon season, adding to Pakistan’s ongoing food security challenges.

Learn more about Pakistan’s agriculture and climate vulnerability.

Tense India-Pakistan Relations Amid Rising Waters

The flooding crisis comes at a sensitive time in India-Pakistan relations. Both nuclear-armed neighbors have been locked in heightened tensions since a violent border clash earlier this year.

While Indian officials insist that water release decisions are driven by excess rainfall and dam safety, Pakistani authorities fear that unilateral actions could inflame political and diplomatic ties.

Some experts warn that such incidents could strain the Indus Waters Treaty (1960), which governs water sharing between the two nations.

External Link: Read more on the Indus Waters Treaty at Britannica.

Evacuations Across Punjab Villages

Pakistan began forced evacuations last week, with over 150,000 people displaced so far. Around 35,000 residents left voluntarily after flood warnings were issued on August 14.

Evacuation operations continue in flood-prone districts along the Ravi, Sutlej, and Chenab Rivers, supported by Pakistan’s army. Relief camps have been set up with access to food, medicine, sanitation facilities, and temporary shelters.

Deputy Commissioner Saba Asghar Ali confirmed that arrangements are being made for displaced families in Pasrur, near the Indian border.

Climate Change Intensifies Eastern River Flooding

Punjab’s Irrigation Minister, Kazim Raza Pirzada, highlighted the link between climate change and worsening floods. He noted that eastern rivers like Ravi, Chenab, and Sutlej are now experiencing heavier-than-usual rainfall.

This year’s monsoon season has been marked by record-breaking downpours in both Pakistan and India. Meanwhile, northern Pakistan’s glaciers are melting faster, while cities like Karachi faced urban flooding last week.

Learn more about climate change in South Asia from UNDP.

Death Toll and Widespread Devastation

Since late June, Pakistan has recorded 802 flood-related deaths, with nearly half occurring in August alone. In neighboring Indian Kashmir, at least 68 people have died this month, including eight fatalities on Tuesday.

The situation highlights the regional nature of climate disasters, where floods, glacial melt, and heatwaves affect millions across South Asia.

Looking Ahead: The Next 48 Hours

Officials stress that the next two days are crucial for flood control. Emergency services are monitoring water flow at critical points across Punjab, with rescue boats on standby.

Meteorologists warn of more heavy rainfall in both Punjab and Pakistan-administered Kashmir in the next 12 to 24 hours. Authorities are urging people in low-lying villages to evacuate immediately to minimize loss of life.

The crisis also raises questions about long-term water management and cross-border cooperation between India and Pakistan in the face of escalating climate threats.

Conclusion

The Pakistan flooding alert following India’s Thein Dam water release has thrown millions into uncertainty. Punjab’s fertile farmlands, critical to the nation’s food supply, are under direct threat as floodwaters surge.

While evacuations and relief operations continue, experts stress that climate change and fragile India-Pakistan ties make the situation even more dangerous. The coming 48 hours will determine how much devastation can be averted—and whether cooperation or confrontation defines this cross-border flood crisis.