India Suspends Indus Water Treaty: A Dangerous Turn in India-Pakistan Water Dispute

The Indus Water Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960 with World Bank mediation, has governed the distribution of the Indus River’s waters between India and Pakistan for over six decades. It allocated the three eastern rivers — Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi — to India, while granting Pakistan exclusive use of the western rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.

Despite multiple wars and diplomatic breakdowns, the treaty remained intact. However, mounting water stress and growing India-Pakistan water disputes have pushed this framework to a breaking point.

India’s Suspension and Its Justification

India suspended the Indus Water Treaty in May 2025, shortly after a deadly attack in Indian-administered Kashmir claimed 26 lives. The attackers were allegedly militants who crossed over from Pakistan. Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar announced that the treaty would remain on hold until Pakistan “credibly and irrevocably” ceases support for cross-border terrorism.

This unilateral move marks the most serious disruption in the treaty’s history and has escalated the India-Pakistan water dispute to unprecedented levels.

Pakistan’s Reaction and Rising Tensions

Pakistan called the suspension an “act of war,” denying any role in the April 22 attack. In retaliation, India launched aerial strikes on suspected militant camps, leading to four days of hostilities, including missile attacks and drone warfare, until a ceasefire was declared on May 10.

The fragile peace, however, masks growing fears of a prolonged India-Pakistan water dispute turning into an environmental and humanitarian crisis.

Why the Treaty Is Now Seen as Outdated

Experts argue that the Indus Water Treaty, while revolutionary in 1960, is woefully outdated in the modern climate era. Dr. Daanish Mustafa, professor of critical geography at King’s College London, called it a “horrible treaty,” adding:

“It has already enabled the ecocide of the Indus River’s fragile ecology and deprived millions of fisherfolk of their livelihoods.”

Hydrology expert Shakil Ahmad Romshoo warned that while the short-term impact of suspension may be negligible, India could build infrastructure in the long term to regulate downstream flow, directly threatening Pakistan’s water security.

Climate Change and the Indus Basin

The Indus Basin is one of the most climate-vulnerable river systems in the world. Accelerated glacial melt in the Himalayas, erratic monsoons, groundwater depletion, and rising temperatures are pushing the region into hydrological instability.

India has long pushed for revisions to the treaty to factor in these emerging realities. However, Pakistan has resisted changes, fearing loss of its water rights. This impasse has led to a breakdown in the treaty’s communication protocols and data-sharing mechanisms.

Expert Opinions on the Way Forward

Many experts see renegotiation of the Indus Water Treaty as the most realistic and peaceful solution to the India-Pakistan water dispute. Dan Haines of University College London identified three potential paths:

1. Renegotiation – Most feasible, considering the treaty’s outdated clauses.
2. Conditional Reinstatement – Treaty could resume with security-based terms.
3. Complete Termination – Least desirable, risking ecological and diplomatic collapse.

Mustafa suggests involving Kashmiris and environmental stakeholders in a new deal. “Unlike land, water cannot be partitioned,” he said, emphasizing that any new pact must prioritize sustainability and human rights.

Legal and Geopolitical Implications

The suspension raises questions about international law and riparian rights. The 2014 UN Watercourses Convention outlines equitable and reasonable utilization of transboundary water, but neither India nor Pakistan are parties to it.

Still, international observers argue that a renegotiated treaty aligned with modern legal principles could strengthen long-term regional stability. However, geopolitical rivalries and deep mistrust stand in the way.

What This Means for Regional Water Security

Over 90% of Pakistan’s population lives within the Indus Basin, and 80% of its agriculture relies on the river system. The stakes are high — a continued standoff could exacerbate food insecurity, malnutrition, and urban water shortages in cities like Karachi and Lahore.

For India, the challenge lies in managing floods and monsoon excesses without violating the treaty. Unilateral moves risk reputational damage and could isolate it diplomatically.

Conclusion: Modernizing or Replacing the Treaty?

The India-Pakistan water dispute has entered a perilous phase. Whether the treaty is reinstated, revised, or scrapped, one fact remains clear: the Indus Water Treaty must evolve to reflect 21st-century realities — climate change, population pressures, and ecological justice.

Policymakers on both sides have a narrow window to prevent environmental disaster and promote sustainable cooperation. The question is whether politics will again triumph over the planet — or if water can become a source of peace rather than conflict.

External Resources

• Indus Waters Treaty – World Bank
• UN Watercourses Convention – UN Water
• India’s Ministry of Jal Shakti
• Pakistan’s Ministry of Water Resources

Internal Links

• Climate Change Threatens Pakistan’s Water Security
• Himalayan Glaciers Melting Faster Than Predicted
• India-Pakistan Relations at a Crossroads