Devastating Impact of Climate Change on Maize Threatens Pakistan’s Food Security

Maize and climate change are becoming a critical national concern as Pakistan’s most vulnerable cereal crop faces unprecedented pressure from rising temperatures, shifting monsoon patterns, and erratic rainfall. While other vegetables like potatoes and onions are making headlines for their record-breaking yields and exports, maize—the staple for millions—has quietly become a victim of climate disruption.

Potato and Onion Boom Masks Maize’s Decline

In an agricultural season that broke previous export records, Pakistan shipped 1.395 million tonnes of vegetables worth $353 million in July-May FY25, surpassing the FY23 record of 1.336 million tonnes. Potatoes alone contributed over 1 million tonnes, with onions and green vegetables filling the rest. However, this surge overshadowed the silent crisis: maize production has not kept pace.

While onion output rose from 2.3m to 2.67m tonnes and potatoes climbed from 8.4m to 9.4m tonnes, maize yields remained stagnant—or worse, declined in many rain-fed areas due to climate extremes.

The Alarming Climate Connection

The direct impact of climate change on maize is more severe than on root vegetables. Maize, being rain-dependent in much of Punjab and KP, suffers from:

• Delayed monsoon rains

• Heatwaves during pollination periods

• Water stress due to poor canal irrigation infrastructure

• Increased pest invasions in warmer climates

A study by FAO classifies maize as one of the most climate-sensitive crops, especially in South Asia. For Pakistan, this spells long-term trouble for food security and livestock feed supply chains, which rely heavily on maize.

Export Success Story—But At What Cost?

While vegetable exports are being hailed as a success story—especially potatoes to Commonwealth Independent States (CIS)—this shift in agricultural priorities may be distorting crop balance. Focus on high-export-value crops has resulted in:

• Neglect of staple cereals like maize

• Diversion of irrigation towards export crops

• Policy gaps in maize seed development and crop insurance

According to Waheed Ahmed, Patron-in-Chief of All Pakistan Fruits and Vegetable Exporters Association, green vegetable exports remain modest (40,000-50,000 tonnes), while potato exports have boomed, largely due to chip-making companies and increased domestic consumption.

However, maize doesn’t enjoy such backing—and without a strong export market or processing industry, its decline goes largely unnoticed.

The Disruption of Market Dynamics

One side effect of the export boom has been the volatility in local vegetable prices, especially during Ramazan. With official price regulation mechanisms faltering and traders exploiting scarcity, onions and potatoes saw prices drop—yet consumers still struggled with affordability.

In contrast, maize prices have remained unstable due to:

• Unpredictable rainfall and drought spells

• Rising input costs (fertilizer, hybrid seeds)

• Shrinking acreage in favor of cash crops

This pricing uncertainty discourages farmers from sowing maize, further shrinking its cultivation area—creating a feedback loop of supply decline.

Crisis in the Making for Maize

Data from the Pakistan Economic Survey FY25 reveals the sobering reality:

• Despite strong overall agriculture performance, maize area and yield show negative trends in rain-fed belts.

• Southern Punjab, AJK, and KP, once major maize-growing regions, now report yield losses of 20–30%, largely attributed to climate variability.

Moreover, maize is crucial for:

• Poultry feed industry

• Dairy sector

• Food staples like corn flour, cereals, and snacks

If maize fails, entire supply chains collapse—from food to livestock to exports.

Experts Warn: Urgent Adaptation Needed

Agronomists and climate experts argue that Pakistan’s maize resilience strategy is dangerously outdated. Dr. Nadeem Shah, a Lahore-based crop scientist, warns:

“We are investing in the wrong crops from a long-term perspective. Export income is important, but domestic food security and resilience must come first. Maize needs urgent intervention through drought-resistant seed varieties, better water management, and government support.”

He advocates for:

• Incentives for climate-smart maize varieties

• Subsidized crop insurance for small farmers

• Stronger maize R&D partnerships with China and Turkey

• Better storage facilities to minimize post-harvest loss

Conclusion: Building Climate-Resilient Agriculture

As the global climate crisis deepens, maize and climate change in Pakistan reflect a broader agricultural dilemma: profit vs. sustainability. While exports of potatoes and onions generate much-needed revenue, they should not come at the cost of vital staples like maize.

Pakistan must now rebalance its agricultural policy to ensure that climate change doesn’t claim another victim. It’s time for a resilient, inclusive, and climate-adaptive farming strategy—before the maize crisis turns into a national food emergency.

Internal & External References:

• FAO on Climate-Smart Agriculture

• Pakistan Economic Survey FY25 

• Internal link: How Heatwaves Are Reshaping Pakistan’s Crop Calendar

• Internal link: Pakistan’s Water Crisis and Food Security Risks