Severe Monsoon Threatens Pakistan: Unprepared for Rising Climate Risks

Pakistan Monsoon Preparedness is now under the spotlight as the country faces an unusually early and severe monsoon season. The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has issued alarming forecasts, warning of above-normal rainfall, hailstorms, dust storms, urban flooding, and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs).

These early climate signals raise one pressing question: Is Pakistan prepared to cope with this looming climate threat?

PMD’s Early Warning and Climate Forecasts

On May 29, the PMD, in collaboration with the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES), held the 5th Climate Application Forum in Islamabad. Key stakeholders across government departments, academia, NGOs, and the United Nations gathered to review and respond to climate forecasts.

Dr. Syed Afzal Saeed, PMD’s Chief Meteorologist, announced that the 2025 monsoon could arrive up to 10 days early and be more intense than usual. He noted that Kerala, India, experienced monsoon onset eight days earlier, signaling changes in regional weather patterns.

According to data collected between 1981 and 2024, rainfall trends are rising in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), with an increased risk of:

• Riverine flooding due to heavy rainfall in catchment areas
• Flash floods and urban flooding in major cities
• GLOFs in Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) and northern KP
• Heatwaves and rising temperatures, accelerating snowmelt

Major Monsoon Threats for 2025

The PMD projects multiple climate hazards:

• Above-normal temperatures in June, particularly in the north
• Enhanced rainfall in northeastern Punjab and AJK
• Normal to below-normal rainfall in GB and northern KP
• Dust and hailstorms in Sindh and Balochistan
• Urban flooding in Karachi, Lahore, Peshawar, and Muzaffarabad

Dr. Saeed emphasized the potential damage to water reservoirs, agriculture, infrastructure, and urban planning if preparations lag. These hazards echo similar impacts seen during the 2022 Pakistan floods, which displaced over 30 million people. (UN OCHA Report)

Global Climate Trends Raise Local Alarms

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recently released its Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025–2029), predicting:

• Global temperatures may rise by 1.2°C to 1.9°C over pre-industrial levels
• 80% chance of breaking the 2024 record for hottest year
• 86% chance of exceeding 1.5°C at least once between 2025–2029

This global outlook heightens the need for countries like Pakistan—already vulnerable to climate change impacts—to take proactive adaptation measures.

Preparedness Measures by Government and Partners

Despite warnings, Pakistan Monsoon Preparedness remains incomplete. At the PMD forum, World Bank representative Bilal Khalid highlighted the Pakistan Hydromet and Climate Services Project (PHCSP) with $40 million in funding.

Dr. Ijaz Kashif, Project Director, revealed:

• Only 110 Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) out of a planned 300 will be installed initially
• Delays are due to security and logistical barriers
• AWS are vital for real-time data and early warning systems

Lt. Gen (R) Nadeem Ahmad, Advisor at RIMES, urged hands-on disaster anticipation, while Maj Gen Amer Ashfaq Kayani, Secretary (In-Charge), Ministry of Defence, pledged full support for enhancing early warning dissemination.

Challenges in Implementation and Public Safety

While NDMA and PDMAs outlined contingency plans, including Emergency Operations Centers (EOCs), real-world results tell a different story.

Over the past 40 days, citizens across Pakistan have experienced:

• Violent dust storms that toppled power lines
• Hailstorms in Islamabad damaging cars and property
• Flying solar panels due to high winds
• Crops destroyed by erratic rainfall, harming farmers

Public awareness remains low. Drainage systems in cities like Lahore and Karachi remain clogged, increasing flood vulnerability.

Internal and External Links

Internal Resources

• Pakistan’s Climate Diplomacy
• 2022 Floods: Lessons Not Learned

External Resources

• PMD Official Website
• WMO Climate Report 2025-2029
• RIMES Climate Services

Conclusion: A Call for Urgent Action

The 2025 monsoon season is a climate emergency in slow motion. The scientific warnings are loud and clear, yet Pakistan Monsoon Preparedness remains patchy at best.

While PMD’s efforts to provide forecasts and early warnings are commendable, the implementation gap—from infrastructure to public communication—remains a dangerous weak point.

Unless immediate and coordinated action is taken by federal, provincial, and local authorities, millions of lives and livelihoods could be at risk this monsoon season.

Final Note for Readers

Citizens are encouraged to:

• Follow PMD alerts regularly
• Avoid unnecessary travel during extreme weather
• Report drainage blockages to municipal authorities
• Prepare emergency kits in flood-prone areas

For the latest updates, visit PMD Alerts