5 Alarming Signs of Water Aggression: New Delhi Bent on Weaponising Water Against Pakistan

ISLAMABAD: New Delhi weaponising water has emerged as a grave regional concern as Pakistan warned the National Assembly that India’s continued silence and unilateral actions under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) are increasingly drawing global scrutiny. The Ministry of Water Resources informed lawmakers that reduced inflows in the Chenab River could devastate crops across millions of acres, deepening Pakistan’s water insecurity and economic stress.

Pakistan has cautioned that while it is strengthening domestic water management, national action alone is insufficient when transboundary rivers are subjected to political coercion.

Background: Indus Waters Treaty under renewed strain

Signed in 1960 with World Bank facilitation, the Indus Waters Treaty governs water sharing between India and Pakistan. Under the treaty, India was allocated control over the eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej — while Pakistan received rights over the western rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.

However, tensions escalated after India unilaterally suspended treaty cooperation in April 2025, following a militant attack in Indian-held Kashmir. Pakistan maintains that such actions undermine international law and threaten millions dependent on the Indus basin.

External reference: World Bank overview of the Indus Waters Treaty
Internal link suggestion: Pakistan water crisis explained

National Assembly told of severe Chenab shortages

In a written reply to the National Assembly, the Ministry of Water Resources warned that non-availability of water in the Chenab River will severely disrupt irrigation systems originating from key headworks.

According to the ministry:

• 1.45 million acres under the Upper Chenab Canal from Marala Headworks face severe crop stress.
• 3.19 million acres irrigated by the Lower Chenab Canal from Khanki Headworks are also at serious risk.

Lawmakers were told that the crisis could destabilize food supply chains and intensify rural poverty if inflows remain suppressed.

Agricultural fallout threatens food security

Punjab’s canal-irrigated agriculture forms the backbone of Pakistan’s food economy. Experts warn that New Delhi weaponising water by manipulating Chenab flows could:

• Reduce wheat and rice yields
• Trigger farmer debt and migration
• Raise food inflation nationwide

Agricultural economists caution that even short-term flow disruptions during critical sowing periods can cause irreversible yield losses.

Internal link suggestion: Climate change and Pakistan agriculture

Pakistan’s per capita water availability in freefall

The ministry also presented stark national water statistics:

• 1951: Over 5,000 cubic meters per person annually
• 2025: Reduced to 819 cubic meters
• 2030 (projected): Just 744 cubic meters

These figures place Pakistan well below the internationally recognized water scarcity threshold, raising fears of social unrest, urban shortages, and economic decline.

Water experts describe this trajectory as a slow-moving national emergency.

India’s silence draws UN concern

Despite repeated diplomatic engagements, India has not responded to Pakistan’s concerns or to inquiries raised by United Nations experts.

UN special rapporteurs had asked India to clarify its position on the treaty suspension by December 16, 2026, yet more than a month after the deadline, no response has been received.

A UN report compiled on October 16, 2025, and made public on December 15, 2025, examined:

• India’s military response to the April 22 Pahalgam incident
• Legal implications of treaty disruption
• Humanitarian consequences for downstream populations

The experts warned that treaty interference could violate the fundamental rights of millions in Pakistan reliant on Indus waters.

External link: UN Special Rapporteurs on water and human rights

Chenab flow reduction raises alarm bells

Pakistan formally contacted India in December 2025 after detecting an extraordinary reduction in Chenab flows.

According to the Office of the Pakistan Commissioner for Indus Waters:

• Flows dropped as low as 870 cusecs between December 10–16
• Historical minimum for the same dates ranges between 4,018–4,406 cusecs

Satellite imagery from December 8 and December 13, 2025, revealed fluctuating surface areas at Baglihar Dam, raising serious questions about upstream water regulation.

Officials termed the pattern “hydrologically abnormal” and inconsistent with treaty obligations.

Why New Delhi weaponising water is dangerous

Analysts warn that New Delhi weaponising water sets a dangerous precedent in South Asia, where climate stress already strains shared river systems.

Potential consequences include:

• Escalation of regional tensions
• Undermining of international water law
• Precedent for water coercion globally

Water diplomacy experts argue that treaties like the IWT survive precisely because they remain insulated from political crises.

What lies ahead for Pakistan

Pakistan has signaled it will continue pursuing:

• Diplomatic engagement
• International legal forums
• Enhanced monitoring of river flows

Officials stress that water must never be used as a weapon, particularly in climate-vulnerable regions.

As per capita availability continues to decline and agriculture faces mounting risks, Pakistan’s call to the global community is growing louder: transboundary water security is a shared responsibility.