Pakistan’s Agriculture Sector in Crisis: Climate Change and Market Failures Threaten Food Security

Pakistan’s agriculture sector, often referred to as the backbone of the national economy, contributes nearly 24% to the GDP and employs around 40% of the workforce. Yet, the sector is teetering on the edge of collapse.

From crippling climate shocks to market inefficiencies, the agriculture industry has suffered a 13.5% drop in major crop output during the last fiscal year. Wheat production in Sindh fell drastically, and cotton yields have plummeted by two-thirds in just five years.

Experts warn that unless immediate steps are taken, Pakistan could lose 8-10% of its total agricultural productivity by 2040, triggering a national food security crisis.

Climate Change and Agricultural Decline

Climate change is rapidly eroding the productivity of Pakistan’s farm sector. According to Fahd Rasul, associate professor at the University of Agriculture Faisalabad, erratic rainfall, heatwaves, and changing monsoon patterns are already cutting wheat yields by 4-6% annually.

By 2050, cumulative losses in wheat and rice production could cost Pakistan $19.5 billion, a nearly tenfold increase from today’s $2 billion.

Pakistan’s 2022 floods, which submerged a third of its farmland, served as a stark reminder of the sector’s vulnerability. More than 60% of farms rely on rainfall or canal irrigation—systems that are now inconsistent due to glacial melt and prolonged droughts.

“Wheat, rice, cotton, sugarcane and maize are highly prone to sudden temperature fluctuations,” Rasul noted. “We are witnessing shorter grain size, reduced milk output in livestock, and soil degradation.”

Hostile Market Forces Driving Farmers Out

Rising costs of fertilizers, electricity, seeds, and pesticides have made farming an unsustainable profession for smallholders. According to Zahid Hussain Bhurgri, secretary general of the Sindh Chamber of Agriculture:

“Why would someone grow a crop that they have to sell at a loss?”

The Economic Survey of Pakistan highlights the severity: wheat production fell from 4.1 to 3.1 million metric tons in Sindh, and cotton yields have dropped from 15.5 million to 5.2 million bales in just five years.

Asif Kamran, director of the Agriculture Policy Centre at the University of Agriculture Faisalabad, explained that middlemen exploit small farmers, further weakening their bargaining power.

Shrinking Farmland and Vanishing Farmers

Another hidden threat is the rapid urbanization swallowing fertile farmland. Shaukat Ali Chadhar from the Kisan Board of Pakistan estimates that:

• 70% of agricultural land in Lahore has been converted to housing and industrial use
• In Gujrat, the figure is 60%
• In Faisalabad, Kasur, and Sheikhupura, 30–40% of productive farmland has been lost

The rural-to-urban migration trend is accelerating due to a lack of basic infrastructure in villages. As young people leave for better prospects in cities, the number of future farmers dwindles.

Water Woes and Soil Stress

Pakistan’s water crisis is compounding the problem. Melting Himalayan glaciers and erratic monsoon patterns are disrupting irrigation across Punjab and Sindh.

The traditional flood irrigation system is not only outdated but wasteful. Meanwhile, groundwater reserves are being overexploited without regulation.

Soil degradation from mono-cropping and excessive chemical use is further lowering yields and reducing land fertility. With 58% of Pakistanis already food insecure, this downward spiral threatens national stability.

The Way Forward: Adaptation and Reform

Despite the challenges, experts agree that Pakistan’s agriculture sector can be revived—but only through urgent and systemic reforms.

Key Recommendations:

• Promote crop diversification and rotate crops to restore soil health
• Introduce low-delta crops such as pulses and oilseeds to conserve water
• Replace flood irrigation with drip and sprinkler systems
• Support farmer cooperatives for better market access and price negotiation
• Subsidize climate-resilient seeds and equipment

Kamran highlighted recent policy reforms such as electronic warehouse receipts, tax breaks on inputs, and farmer loans as steps in the right direction.

“If implemented consistently, these reforms can provide enormous returns,” said Bhurgri. “We need agriculture-friendly governance—not short-term populist fixes.”

Conclusion: A Turning Point for Pakistan

The collapse of Pakistan’s agriculture sector is not inevitable. But it will require political will, climate-smart strategies, and strong support systems to reverse course.

If the government, academia, private sector, and farming communities come together, Pakistan can safeguard its agricultural future, reduce food imports, and create millions of rural jobs.

The time to act is now—before the country’s breadbasket turns into a dust bowl.

External Resources

• Economic Survey of Pakistan 2024-25 (Govt of Pakistan)
• IPCC Climate Change Report – Impacts on South Asia
• FAO Pakistan – Climate and Food Security

Internal Links

• Pakistan’s Climate Vulnerability Report 2025
• Water Scarcity and Urbanization in Karachi