Pakistan Faces 15–35% Irrigation Shortfall During Kharif Despite Higher Water Availability

Pakistan is expected to face a significant irrigation shortfall during the ongoing kharif season despite improved water availability and stronger reservoir levels.

According to the Indus River System Authority (Irsa), the country may experience a 15 percent system shortfall in April and a 35 percent shortfall during the early kharif period from April to June 10.

Officials estimate that the late kharif season could still face a 5 percent shortfall.

Higher Reservoir Levels Fail to Eliminate Water Gap

The shortfall projections come despite Pakistan recording its highest carryover storage in six to seven years.

Reservoir storage reached 3.3 million acre-feet (MAF) on April 7, while the season began with 2.3 MAF on April 1.

Rainfall and expected inflows from the Kabul River added nearly 1 MAF to the system.

Overall water availability for the 2026 kharif season is expected to be stronger than in the previous decade, but officials say infrastructure delays and operational constraints are reducing the benefits.

Tarbela Delays Continue to Affect Irrigation Supplies

One of the main reasons behind the projected shortfall is the delay in critical infrastructure work at Tarbela Dam.

Officials informed the Irsa Advisory Committee that Tunnel-5, which was originally expected to be completed in June 2025, has now been delayed until August 2027.

However, authorities believe the delay may not severely affect the irrigation system if Tunnel-4 and the Low Level Outlet (LLO) are completed by May as planned.

The delays at Tarbela have already become a major concern for provinces such as Sindh, which has warned that restricted outflows could damage kharif crops and worsen irrigation shortages.

Full Kharif Water Availability Outlook

For the entire kharif season from April to September, officials project total inflows at rim stations of around 103.30 MAF.

This includes 24.48 MAF during early kharif and 78.81 MAF during the later phase of the season.

Despite these improved inflows, officials say water losses across the irrigation system remain a major concern.

System losses in the Indus zone are estimated at 25 percent for April and 35 percent for the period from May 1 to June 10.

Irsa plans to reassess the shortfall estimates in early May after reviewing actual water flow observations.

Provinces Yet to Submit Irrigation Demand Estimates

Officials from the Ministry of Water Resources said provinces have not yet submitted their irrigation indents because water availability currently appears sufficient.

However, experts warn that the situation could change quickly if expected inflows decline or if Tarbela infrastructure delays continue.

The early kharif period is especially important because it supports the sowing of major crops such as cotton, rice, sugarcane and vegetables.

Any major disruption in irrigation supplies during this stage could reduce agricultural productivity and increase economic pressure on farmers.

Conclusion

Pakistan’s higher reservoir levels have improved the overall water outlook for the kharif season, but infrastructure delays and system losses continue to create serious irrigation challenges.

With provinces heavily dependent on timely water supplies for sowing and crop growth, experts say rapid completion of Tarbela projects and better water management will be essential to reduce the risk of shortages.