Pakistan Floods: Expert Warns of Deadly New Normal and Urgent Adaptation Strategies (2025)
Pakistan floods new normal: Water expert Muhammad Ehsan Leghari warns that the country must adapt to deadly flooding as climate change, governance gaps, and cross-border water disputes intensify risks.
Pakistan floods new normal — this is the grim reality outlined by Muhammad Ehsan Leghari, a water resource management expert and provincial member of the Indus River System Authority. Speaking to Dialogue Earth, Leghari stressed that Pakistan must urgently adapt as devastating floods displace millions and claim nearly 1,000 lives in 2025, echoing the tragedy of the catastrophic 2022 floods.
He warned that Pakistan is caught between nature’s fury and human mismanagement, with climate change making floods more frequent and severe. The new normal requires resilience, preparedness, and a paradigm shift in governance.
Natural and Human-Made Causes of Flooding
As Gilbert F. White observed in 1942, “Floods are acts of God, but flood losses are largely acts of man.” In Pakistan, this rings painfully true.
- Natural causes: Intense monsoons (200–300mm rainfall), Himalayan glacial melt, and storms.
- Human-made causes: Weak governance, deforestation, poor land-use planning, and unchecked urbanisation.
For example, the Ravi Urban Development Authority has paved floodplains along the Ravi River, turning natural water absorption zones into concrete pathways. This worsens urban flooding, transforming cities like Lahore into flood-prone zones.
Climate Change, Glacial Melt and Monsoon Shifts
Leghari emphasized that accelerated glacial melt in the Himalayas, Hindu Kush, and Karakoram — combined with erratic monsoon patterns — drives unpredictable surges in rivers like the Chenab and Sutlej.
Pakistan, despite contributing less than 1% to global greenhouse gas emissions, faces billions in climate damages. World Weather Attribution confirms the link between climate change and rising flood intensity.
Effectiveness of Barrages, Dams, and Canals
Barrage systems in Punjab, such as Headworks and canals, managed to divert some 2025 floodwaters. However, bottlenecks like Panjnad Barrage created dangerous backflows.
Key issues:
- Hydraulic structures are aging and inadequate.
- Over-reliance creates a false sense of security.
- Poor maintenance leads to breaches.
Experts recommend nature-based solutions: restoring wetlands, floodplains, and using AI-driven forecasting to manage river flows more effectively.
Sediment and Silt: The Hidden Threat
Sediment buildup has raised the Indus riverbed by 17.75%, cutting its flood handling capacity almost in half.
This “silent flood driver” results from:
- Deforestation in upstream catchments.
- Lack of integrated watershed management.
Without action, future floods will spill over embankments, causing catastrophic damage to agricultural and urban areas alike.
Climate Change and Future Flood Risks
Looking 20–30 years ahead, models predict:
- More intense monsoons.
- Accelerated glacial melt.
- Rising sea levels blocking Sindh’s drainage.
The result? Flood disasters like 2010, 2022, and 2025 will become increasingly frequent.
Only climate adaptation, combined with both engineering solutions and nature-based measures, can soften the blow.
Punjab’s Vulnerability and Local Solutions
Districts most exposed: Multan, Jhang, Layyah, Bahawalnagar, and Dera Ghazi Khan. Urban centers like Lahore and Rawalpindi also face severe drainage challenges.
Local strategies include:
- Seasonal relocation programs.
- Mobile health units and veterinary services.
- Community-led evacuation planning using ancestral knowledge.
- Community disaster preparedness training.
Empowering vulnerable groups is crucial to breaking the cycle of loss.
Flood Warning Systems: Current Gaps
Since the 2010 floods, Pakistan’s early warning systems have improved, but challenges remain:
- Poor rural communication.
- Limited local language broadcasts.
- Inconsistent real-time accuracy.
- Weak cross-border data sharing.
Leghari calls for bottom-up, community-driven warning systems using radio, SMS alerts, and 24/7 basin monitoring.
India’s Water Release and Regional Tensions
In 2025, India released excess water from Bhakra Dam, worsening floods in Punjab. While India did provide warnings through diplomatic channels, Pakistan accuses its neighbor of weaponizing water after suspending the Indus Waters Treaty earlier in April.
This underscores the urgent need for regional water diplomacy. For further insight, see our article on India-Pakistan water disputes.
Sindh as the Lower Riparian Province
Sindh faces the longest inundations, as flat terrain prevents water escape. With little input in upstream water management, the province remains Pakistan’s most vulnerable flood victim.
Floodwaters reclaim natural floodplains, displacing millions for months and destroying livelihoods.
Governance Failures and Policy Gaps
Flood mismanagement is rooted in weak governance:
- Over 400 floodpath obstructions identified since 2011 remain unaddressed.
- NDMA and provincial authorities are fragmented and disconnected from communities.
- Flood Plan IV has stalled.
Elite-driven mega projects like Ravi’s urban sprawl take precedence over public safety and climate resilience.
What Pakistan Must Do to Adapt
Leghari outlined key adaptation strategies for Pakistan:
- Rainwater harvesting and urban reuse.
- Green building codes and eco-friendly urban planning.
- Wetland and floodplain restoration.
- Watershed management and afforestation.
A 2023 Dutch white paper recommends the “3Rs” approach:
- Reuse — recharge groundwater.
- Retention/Reduction — cross-drainage channels.
- Removing — redesign bridges and embankments to give rivers space.
Dams, meanwhile, remain controversial and ineffective, often worsening floods rather than preventing them.
Conclusion: Living with Floods
The message is clear: Pakistan floods new normal. Catastrophic floods are no longer rare — they are expected.
The solution is not resisting nature, but living with floods:
- Giving rivers room to flow.
- Combining modern technology with traditional knowledge.
- Strengthening governance and regional cooperation.
Unless Pakistan acts now, the “new normal” will remain one of displacement, death, and economic devastation.
