IWMI: Early Forecasts and Finance Key as Record El Niño Nears South Asia

IWMI: Advance Forecasts and Early Financing Could Help South Asia Weather a Record El Niño

The International Water Management Institute (IWMI) said on 20 October 2026 that governments in South Asia are on high alert as El Niño heats the Pacific. Pacific sea-surface temperatures have reached 3.08°C above average, passing the previous record anomaly of 3.02°C set in November 2015. The analysis was written by IWMI’s Carolyn Fry and Giriraj Amarnath.

Why South Asia is exposed

South Asia is home to two billion people and produces almost a third of the world’s rice, so disrupted harvests can have far-reaching effects. El Niño is expected to be most intense in late 2026 and early 2027, and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole could either offset drought or trigger volatile swings between wet and dry conditions.

What the forecasts show

IWMI’s ENSO Outlook tool uses AI to turn climate signals into alerts, briefings and crop-based advisories, and is freely available. It draws on data from more than 20 agencies. It indicates that between now and December, water stress, from either too little or too much rain, will likely affect about 760 million people in South Asia. Below-normal rainfall is forecast for southeastern areas and above-normal rainfall for the northwest.

The financing gap

The authors argue that forecasts alone do not get help to people. A strong seasonal El Niño forecast is generally not enough to release humanitarian funding, because it does not pinpoint where, when or how severely impacts will hit. The Sri Lanka Red Cross Society says early financing needs three things: strong evidence that El Niño predicts impacts, pre-defined trigger thresholds, and a layered system in which seasonal forecasts release “readiness financing” and later data release early-action funds.

A pilot in Colombia by microfinance bank Bancamía and fintech Atram sends small businesses weather alerts by WhatsApp with a contingent credit line that pays out only if the forecast impacts occur. On insurance, better forecasts can cause “anti-selection,” and a sovereign risk pool across South Asia is one proposed fix.

Conclusion

IWMI’s message is that the science is ahead of the money. With the strongest impacts expected within months, the authors call for forecast-based financing so that governments can act before extreme weather arrives.

Source: IWMI, “Advance forecasts and financing could help South Asia weather El Niño,” 20 October 2026 (iwmi.org).