India’s Indus Water Strategy: 7 Alarming Signs Water Is Becoming a Weapon in South Asia

India’s Indus water strategy is entering a new and alarming phase, one that risks transforming South Asia’s rivers from shared natural resources into instruments of strategic pressure. The recent approval of the 260-megawatt Dulhasti Stage-II hydropower project on the Chenab River is not merely an infrastructure expansion. It signals a deeper recalibration of regional water politics with far-reaching consequences for Pakistan’s agriculture, economy, and long-term stability.

According to analysis published in The National Interest, the project reflects a shift away from cooperative water governance toward a model in which upstream control is increasingly leveraged for geopolitical advantage. Coming shortly after India’s April 2025 decision to place the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in abeyance, the timing of Dulhasti Stage-II underscores how water is becoming central to strategic competition in South Asia.

The Dulhasti Stage-II Project and Strategic Timing

Approved at an estimated cost of $395 million, Dulhasti Stage-II will be developed by India’s public-sector utility NHPC Limited. The project will utilize infrastructure from the existing 390 MW Dulhasti Stage-I plant, commissioned in 2007, allowing India to expand capacity while minimizing new construction.

Indian officials maintain that Dulhasti Stage-II qualifies as a run-of-the-river project and therefore complies with treaty provisions. However, India’s Indus water strategy cannot be assessed through technical definitions alone. Cumulative impacts, upstream coordination with other projects, and the simultaneous weakening of dispute-resolution mechanisms fundamentally alter the treaty’s operational balance.

Dulhasti Stage-II is hydrologically linked to the Pakal Dul project, drawing water from the Marusudar River before channeling it into the Chenab system. Indian environmental documents acknowledge that this reconfiguration will alter river morphology, ecology, and downstream flow behavior.

Indus Waters Treaty Under Unprecedented Pressure

Signed in 1960 under World Bank mediation, the Indus Waters Treaty has long been regarded as one of the world’s most durable transboundary water agreements. It survived wars, diplomatic breakdowns, and decades of hostility between India and Pakistan.

Under the treaty:

• India controls the eastern rivers: Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej
• Pakistan receives unrestricted use of the western rivers: Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab
• India’s use of western rivers is limited to non-consumptive purposes under strict design constraints

Crucially, the treaty contains no clause permitting unilateral suspension.

Yet in April 2025, following the Pahalgam incident, India halted hydrological data sharing, questioned the treaty’s arbitration mechanisms, and accelerated long-contested projects across the Indus Basin. These include Ratle, Pakal Dul, Bursar, Sawalkot, Kiru, Kwar, and Kirthai-I and II.

In August, the Permanent Court of Arbitration reaffirmed that India remains legally obligated to “let flow” the waters of the western rivers for Pakistan’s use. Pakistan has continued engaging in Neutral Expert proceedings, exposing an emerging asymmetry in treaty compliance.

Chenab River: From Shared Lifeline to Strategic Leverage

The Chenab River is central to Pakistan’s agricultural and economic survival. Flowing into Punjab, it sustains irrigation for wheat, rice, and sugarcane, the backbone of national food security.

Pakistan operates the world’s largest contiguous irrigation system, with over 80 percent of agriculture dependent on the Indus Basin. Even minor disruptions in flow timing can produce disproportionate economic and humanitarian consequences.

While run-of-the-river projects limit storage volume, they still enable flow modulation, especially during sowing and harvesting periods. In water-stressed agrarian systems, timing can matter as much as quantity—a reality at the heart of Pakistan’s concerns over India’s Indus water strategy.

Water as a Silent but Powerful Weapon

The weaponization of water is increasingly recognized beyond South Asia. A Eurasia Group risk assessment has warned that India’s suspension of treaty obligations and data sharing has turned water into a non-traditional instrument of power.

Unlike conventional military escalation, water coercion is gradual and often invisible:

• Reduced flows shrink crop yields
• Rural incomes decline
• Food prices rise
• Malnutrition risks increase

All without crossing immediate crisis thresholds.

For Pakistan, where tens of millions rely directly on Indus-fed agriculture, prolonged uncertainty represents a systemic national risk, not a temporary disruption.

Regional and Global Implications of Treaty Erosion

The implications of India’s Indus water strategy extend well beyond bilateral relations. The Indus Waters Treaty has long been cited as evidence that cooperative water governance is possible even between adversaries.

Its erosion sets a troubling global precedent:

• Treaties become politically conditional
• Upstream states gain unchecked leverage
• Downstream vulnerabilities intensify

As climate change accelerates glacier melt, disrupts monsoons, and increases freshwater demand, weakening one of the world’s most successful water-sharing agreements risks normalizing water insecurity as a geopolitical tool.

Climate Change, Water Stress, and Escalating Risks

South Asia is already among the most climate-vulnerable regions globally. Himalayan glacier retreat, erratic rainfall, and extreme heat are intensifying competition over water resources.

In this context, India’s Indus water strategy compounds climate stress with geopolitical uncertainty. Resource coercion in such an environment raises the risk of miscalculation and escalation, particularly between two nuclear-armed states.

External Link: World Bank about Indus Water Treaty

External Link: Indus Waters Treaty

Dulhasti Stage-II as a Test Case for Indus Governance

Dulhasti Stage-II is ultimately a test case. Its execution will determine whether the Indus Waters Treaty remains a living framework or degrades into a hollow relic.

Proceeding without:

• Restored data sharing
• Meaningful international scrutiny
• Respect for dispute-resolution mechanisms

would embolden further unilateralism and deepen mistrust across the basin.

What Is at Stake for Pakistan’s Economy and Food Security

For Pakistan, the stakes are existential:

• Agricultural output
• Rural employment
• Food affordability
• Long-term economic stability

Any sustained disruption in Indus flows would ripple across the economy, exacerbating debt distress, inflation, and social vulnerability.

Conclusion: A Precedent South Asia Cannot Afford

In the short term, India’s Indus water strategy may offer tactical leverage. In the long term, dismantling a framework that has prevented rivers from becoming instruments of conflict for over six decades risks entrenching water insecurity as a permanent feature of South Asian geopolitics.

Safeguarding the Indus Waters Treaty is no longer just a bilateral obligation—it is a regional necessity tied to food security, climate resilience, and conflict prevention. Turning water into a weapon may deliver momentary advantage, but it threatens enduring instability in one of the world’s most fragile regions.