Alarming Ways India’s Chenab Water Threat Is Endangering Pakistan’s Survival
India Chenab water threat to Pakistan is escalating as dam manipulation erodes the Indus Waters Treaty, disrupts agriculture, and risks turning water scarcity into conflict.
The India Chenab water threat to Pakistan is not a routine technical disagreement over dam operations. The abrupt release of 58,300 cusecs of water into the Chenab, followed by expectations of near-zero downstream flows once Indian reservoirs refill, has destabilised Pakistan’s irrigation planning. These actions cripple predictability, the very foundation upon which Pakistan’s agriculture depends.
According to Pakistan’s Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA), current Chenab flows stand at:
- Marala: 31,000 cusecs
- Khanki: 17,000 cusecs
- Qadirabad: 11,000 cusecs
- Trimmu: 11,000 cusecs
Such erratic variations are catastrophic for canal scheduling and reservoir management.
Sudden Water Releases and Dangerous Flow Fluctuations
Unannounced water releases represent one of the most destabilising elements of the India Chenab water threat to Pakistan. Without prior notification, Pakistan cannot prepare embankments, regulate canals, or protect standing crops.
The Director General ISPR has labelled these actions as “water terrorism,” reflecting growing national concern that water is being used as a pressure tool. These tactics deepen mistrust in a region already burdened by historical hostility.
Chenab River’s Lifeline Role in Pakistan’s Agriculture
The Chenab River is the backbone of Punjab’s irrigation system. Wheat cultivation—Pakistan’s staple food—relies heavily on predictable Chenab flows. Any disruption during sowing or maturation stages reduces yields and inflates food prices nationwide.
The India Chenab water threat to Pakistan places millions of farmers at risk, leading to:
- Crop losses
- Rising fertiliser and irrigation costs
- Increased farmer indebtedness
- Heightened food insecurity
Indus Waters Treaty Under Severe Strain
Signed in 1960 with World Bank mediation, the Indus Waters Treaty divided river control between India and Pakistan. Pakistan received rights over the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, while India retained the eastern rivers.
For decades, the treaty survived wars, border conflicts, and diplomatic breakdowns. However, the India Chenab water threat to Pakistan intensified after India suspended treaty cooperation following the Pahalgam incident and Operation Sindoor (2025).
This suspension marked an unprecedented shift from cooperation to coercion.
Climate Change and Weaponisation of Water
Climate change has magnified the danger of the India Chenab water threat to Pakistan. The Indus Basin is already under stress due to:
- Glacier retreat
- Erratic monsoons
- Rising temperatures
In such a fragile system, treaty-based predictability is not optional—it is essential. Weaponising water in a climate-stressed region risks cascading humanitarian and security crises.
Global Implications of Eroding Water Treaties
The Indus Waters Treaty has long been cited as a global model for managing shared resources between hostile neighbours. Its erosion sends a dangerous signal worldwide.
If a treaty of this stature can be sidelined, upstream states elsewhere may feel emboldened to manipulate shared rivers. The India Chenab water threat to Pakistan therefore transcends bilateral politics—it threatens global water governance norms.
The Way Forward: Diplomacy, Relief, and Survival
Addressing the India Chenab water threat to Pakistan requires immediate and long-term action:
1. Treaty Restoration
Pakistan and India must recommit to the Indus Waters Treaty with third-party facilitation.
2. International Mediation
The World Bank and United Nations should play an active role in restoring compliance.
3. Climate-Resilient Cooperation
Joint data-sharing, flood forecasting, and drought management mechanisms are essential.
4. Domestic Farmer Relief
Pakistan must support affected farmers through:
- Emergency subsidies
- Debt restructuring
- Irrigation efficiency upgrades
The India Chenab water threat to Pakistan is a stark warning. Water must never become a weapon. As climate change tightens its grip, cooperative water governance is no longer a diplomatic luxury—it is a survival imperative. The erosion of the Indus Waters Treaty risks turning scarcity into conflict, with consequences far beyond South Asia.
If the world fails to act, the Chenab crisis may be remembered as the moment when water diplomacy gave way to water wars.
External Link:
1) World bank Announcement of Indus Water Treaty Signed on September 19, 1960.
2) Provincial Disaster Management Authority – PDMA
3) World Bank Group – International Development, Poverty and Sustainability
4) UN-Water | Coordinating the UN’s work on water and sanitation
