Adapting agriculture to climate change

Climate change patterns indicate more droughts and floods for which we must be prepared. El Nino and La Nina (climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean/ warm and cold currents) are phenomena affecting weather worldwide. These are characteristic long spells of droughts and rains. Man-made greenhouse gas emissions have disturbed the natural patterns, resulting in more unpredictable events. One has a vivid memory of drought-caused migration and misery in Balochistan, Ethiopia and Somalia. As Sindh and Balochistan are still struggling to recover from the 2022 floods, a new wave of rains and floods has occurred. It is now an accepted fact that a two degrees-Celsius rise in temperatures is expected in a century’s time.

Climate change and sustainable food production for a world population of 10 billion people by 2050 are among the top agendas for researchers and policymakers. The interactions between agriculture and climate change are critical and multifaceted. Climate change presents unprecedented challenges, affecting crop yields, livestock productivity, water availability, soil health and ecosystem stability. Key climate risks for agriculture are physical (extreme climate events to invasive species) and transitional (policy, technology, net zero, climate financing, loss and damage) for global climate action. Biodiversity and the intricate link between environments, animals and humans necessitate intersectoral approaches for mitigation of climate change.

The Nationally Determined Contributions of COP and Climate Vulnerable Forum apprised the need for integrated inter-sectoral climate action to mitigate effects of climate change in agriculture, livestock and human health. COP 29 is around the corner. Pakistan is being continuously ranked among the ten countries most affected by climate change according to the Global Climate Risk Index report. Pakistan experienced elevated temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, severe droughts, bad air quality and increased frequency of extreme weather events. Since 2010, the weather patterns in Pakistan have been in a constant flux. Shifting monsoons, delayed winters, early spring heat shocks, intense heatwaves in summer, severe cold nights in winter, droughts and floods in different parts of the country in different years keep adding to the uncertainty. The implications of unpredictable weather for agriculture and food security are serious.

A range of adaptation and mitigation measures are being discussed, including climate smart agriculture. While we wait for such measures to work, the farmer tends to adjust and adapt. The worst livelihood outcomes include excessive borrowing, sale of assets and migration. The seasonal migration of people and livestock from deserts and mountains is becoming more frequent. The agriculture sector contributes approximately 24 percent of the country’s GDP and employs nearly 40 percent of the labour force. It is also responsible for around 41 percent of the country’s total greenhouse gas emissions, primarily from agricultural practices and livestock etc. These emissions exacerbate the challenges posed by climate change, including declining crop yields, water scarcity, vector-borne and non-communicable public health diseases.

For instance, wheat production in Pakistan is projected to decline by 20-30 percent by 2050 due to negative impacts of climate change. It is important to understand climate change mitigation and adaptation in the rice-wheat cropping system as it utilises two thirds of the country’s cultivated land and irrigation water.

The unprecedented increase in global geospatial information availability, processing power and access to the data archives provide the opportunity to better understand these impacts. The availability of large-scale datasets offers effective solutions to analyse and understand our agro-ecosystems and provide insights for climate action. The pilot-scale successes at the University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, include adaptation and mitigation strategies like: redefining agro-ecological zones; bed-planting; crop residue management; agro-forestry; insect-pest-pathogen control; heat tolerant wheat varieties; GM crops; regenerative agricultural practices; solar technologies; livestock waste management; and One Health.

The interactions between agriculture and climate change are critical and multifaceted. Climate change presents unprecedented challenges.

Bed planting wheat and rice could save up to 50 percent of irrigation water consumed by the two crops. AEZs based cropping patterns/ clusters can promote diversification. Providing farmers/ communities with timely data-driven climate information and training them in adaptive practices can enhance their capacity to respond effectively to climate-related challenges. Collaborative efforts between government agencies, research institutions and the farming community are crucial in formulating and implementing adaptive strategies. We have signed a $24 million USAID funded climate smart agriculture collaborative programme for the next three years to build resilience among the communities by promoting CSA practices.

The land-grant college model of USA (our original Lyallpur model still practiced in India) provides an excellent example of combining three important functions (research, education and extension) under one umbrella to innovate and disseminate climate friendly technologies. Another potential option for performing sustainable agriculture practices by using modern agriculture technologies is the adoption of service-providers model to overcome the affordability issue for small farmers. Nutritional sensitive agriculture (e.g. increased zinc, iron, Vitamin D), functional foods and adoption of golden rice (to treat Vitamin A deficiency) are global and regional practical examples to achieve food security and climate resilience. The future of climate smart agriculture and livestock production shall be precision driven.

Global, regional and national stewardships are quintessential to cope with physical (changing climate factors) and transition (net zero, innovative technologies, outreach, policy, climate action) climate risks to agriculture and ecosystem diversity. The backyard poultry contributes approximately 20 percent of the egg and poultry meat supplies, sold at premium price. Looking at the rampant malnutrition and its nexus with poverty, the backyard poultry deserves special attention. We have bred desi birds with lesser feather load making them temperature resilient. Our marine resources and inland fisheries offer a rich avenue for growth. High density plantation of fruit trees is a climate adaptation by canopy management. Mechanisation for plant debris management to avoid burning could reduce air pollution and enhance soil organic matter.

Despite the current challenges of data gaps and limited systematic collection, the rapid advancements in satellite data, modelling techniques, and scientific methodologies offer promising solutions. The daunting challenge of climate change needs concerted efforts of research and development, data science tools, academia-industry-private partnerships, community empowerment, engagement of policymakers, financing and political commitment.

As we continue to refine our data collection and analysis methods, the integration of data science into climate adaptation strategies will become increasingly crucial. There is an urgent need for public investment in commissioned research programmes aimed at climate adaptation and mitigation.

Pakistan is endowed with a vast natural resource and human capital. Following are the key interventions identified as action items:

1) Redefining agro-ecological zones for economic suitability as a live dashboard.

2) Developing climate-resilient crop varieties using new genetics, such as heat-tolerant wheat and short duration crops.

3) Efficient irrigation via bed planting to save 50 percent water and reduce GHGs.

4) Precision agriculture through digital monitoring tools.

5) Sustainable land management practices, like conservation agriculture and agroforestry for carbon sequestration.

6) Climate smart livestock production and compliance with the methane pledge.

7) Promotion of aquaculture and inland fisheries.

8) Restorative crops/ legumes and regenerative agriculture.

9) New crops and GM technologies for drought/ stress resistance.

10) Empowering communities especially climate vulnerable populations.

11) Global climate justice, equity and green climate funding.

The writer is the vice chancellor of the University of Agriculture, Faisalabad